For the first time in years, Myanmar opposition groups and analysts dared to hope on Friday there is a possibility of reconciliation in the long-fragmented nation ruled by the military for more than four decades.
Their hopes were stirred by the obvious confidence displayed by UN special envoy Razali Ismail after a four-day visit to isolated Yangon that a political ice sheet was showing signs of breaking up.
"Razali's comments raise more hope of reconciliation than those in the past," said Myanmar expert Surachai Sirikrai of Bangkok's Thammasat University.
"It makes sense for the government to be more compromising this time to deflect international criticism," he said of a government subject to sanctions or cut off from substantial new aid by the United States, the European Union and Japan.
But they said there were too many unfathomable factors to dare to hope too much despite Razali saying he was convinced Prime Minister Khin Nyunt meant to lead Myanmar to democracy and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi was ready to work with him.
Chief among the unknowns is the enigma of Than Shwe, the top military leader who did not meet Razali during his visit, and whether the armed forces are united behind General Khin Nyunt, their intelligence chief when he took office last August.
Some diplomats said Razali's appeal for international support specifically for Khin Nyunt hinted Than Shwe was not behind him fully and the prime minister's position needed shoring up within the military.
"I am going to talk to countries such as China to fully support what Khin Nyunt is going to do or has to do and to support the idea of a working relationship between Khin Nyunt and Aung San Suu Kyi," Razali told Reuters.
But opposition groups said the outpouring of international anger over the detention of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Suu Kyi last May after violent clashes between supporters of her National League for Democracy and government backers had forced a change.
"Than Shwe realises he committed a very big mistake in the May 30 incident. He has to soften his position. He has to negotiate," said Zin Linn, spokesman for the opposition National Coalition Government of The Union of Burma.
Zin Linn said he did not believe there was a split in the military over moving towards democracy and that Than Shwe was behind Khin Nyunt, who announced a seven-step "road to democracy" soon after taking office.
From May 30 until September, Suu Kyi was detained at an unknown location. She was allowed to go home after surgery in September, but remains cut off there, without telephone and visitors requiring government clearance to see her.
Razali suggested she would be freed next month, not least because the government is promising to reconvene this year a constitutional conference abandoned in 1996 and knows it cannot do so without Suu Kyi and the NLD.
"The sceptics will be less sceptical when Suu Kyi is released and she's seen to have a working relationship with the government and with Khin Nyunt," he said when asked what evidence there was any difference now from the many failed initiatives of the past.
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