Fragmentation of the Opposition

President General Pervez Musharraf's preference for the MMA as a co-operative political force and keeping the two mainstream opposition parties, the PPP and the PML (N), on the margins, seems poised to bear fresh fruit.
The resignations by one MNA, three MPAs and eight Nazims from Rahimyar Khan/Bahawalpur bode ill for the fortunes of the PPP.
The MNA in question, Zafar Iqbal Warraich's resignation came as a shock to the party leadership, particularly Ms Naheed Khan, whose hold over party affairs in the absence of its leader abroad was cited as the reason for the dissident MNA's parting of the ways with a party whose loyal worker he remained for many years and on whose behalf he suffered prison and other indignities, according to none other than Ms Khan herself.
The question now arises, is the PPP in for a new wave of 'defections' from its ranks, following in the footsteps of the group that broke away and named itself PPP Patriots after the October 2002 general elections, in return for high offices and other perks?
If the PPP has proved vulnerable to betrayal in its ranks by opportunists seeking the rising sun, a tribe General Musharraf has found extraordinarily useful for manufacturing a majority for the ruling PML(Q), how much more threatened by a similar fate is the rump PML(N), whose ranks were depleted wholesale by a stampede towards the PML(Q) once its leader was booted out of power?
The defiant likes of Javed Hashmi notwithstanding, the PML(N) is no different from the culture of remaining on the right side of the powers that be which permeates our political parties.
Unlike the Patriots, however, the current crop of 'defectees' has had to have recourse to resigning their seats since the anti-defection clause of the Constitution under Article 63 is once again operational after the passing of the LFO.
In the present circumstances, perhaps it would not be difficult for the ruling circles with, (according to Punjab Leader of the opposition Qasim Zia) some help from the intelligence agencies to ensure that these slippery worthies win the by-elections that must follow, and having once again secured their 'traditional' seats, be rewarded with high offices a la Faisal Saleh Hayat and Rao Sikandar.
To what extent Aftab Sherpao's recent tour of the Rahimyar Khan/Bahawalpur salient has been responsible for persuading these johnies to abandon their party and their principles, can only remain in the realm of conjecture.
The efforts of the other side in inducing defections notwithstanding, the leadership of the PPP and the PML(N) who are now ironically joined in holy alliance in the ARD, should reflect on what this latest wave of desertion could spell for the opposition entire.
With the leaders of both the parties abroad, one in self-imposed and the other in forced exile, their followers appear rudderless, leaderless and lost in an unending maze of remaining out in the cold.
How many still have the gumption to stick out this lean period in hope of better days must be a question that should now exercise the imaginations of both Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif.
Whether one likes the politics of the past of these two leaders and their parties or not, the fact remains that the further fragmentation of the real Opposition (the MMA having opted for collaboration in exchange for its two provincial governments) would leave Pakistan poorer in terms of a credible political system.
It may also perhaps pave the way for the present lot at the helm to further strengthen its hold on power, something that is in the process of being institutionalised as military oversight of national politics, rather than a genuine, democratic, civilian dispensation in which the civilian holds sway over the military.