Russia's grain exports fell sharply in February as a consequence of the introduction of an export duty on wheat and rye and a rise in domestic barley prices, which had seriously cut barley export efficiency.
Russia's wheat exports dropped to 20,690 tonnes in February from 175,510 tonnes in January after an export duty of 25 Eurasia per tonne was set from the middle of January on wheat and rye.
Exports to countries outside the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) of the former Soviet Union have virtually stopped. Small shipments of wheat were delivered to Ukraine and Georgia.
Though the export duty is likely to be removed from May 1, Russian wheat deliveries will not seriously increase before the new season due to very tight domestic supply and strong domestic prices.
In addition, demand from Ukraine, which was the major buyer of Russian wheat this season, has been declining fast ahead of the new crop.
SovEcon's forecast for Russia's total wheat and wheat flour exports in the 2003/04 season remains practically unchanged at 4.0-4.1 million tonnes, well down on last season, but very close to the 2001/02 volume of 4.2 million tonnes.
In February, Russia's exports of barley declined to 132,710 tonnes.
On the one hand, foreign demand essentially from Saudi Arabia remains slack. On the other hand, firm domestic prices are undermining Russia's competitiveness.
However, Russia's barley exports still remain above last season's volumes. Total Russia's barley exports in July-February amounted to 2.84 million tonnes, against 2.63 million tonnes over the same period of last year.
Provisional customs data for the first half of March revealed an increase in barley exports over this period compared with February and January. It is very likely that the increase reflects the completion of export contracts signed.
SovEcon has trimmed its forecast for Russia's total barley exports in 2003/04 by 0.2 million to 3.2-3.3 million tonnes, compared with 3.5 million tonnes last season.
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