Private group Australian Wheat Forecasters Pty Ltd (AWF) on Friday forecast that Australia would smash all records to produce a bumper 27.5 million tonnes wheat crop in 2004/05.
This would be up from the previous record of 25 million tonnes in the latest crop year to March 31 and almost three times greater than the drought-affected crop of 10 million tonnes the year before.
With parts of Australia's cropping areas slipping back into drought, the forecast was subject to a timely and decisive seasonal rain break in southern states, AWF's Managing Director Brian Bailey said.
AWF said in its first forecast for the 2004/05 season to March 31 that an increased area was expected to be sown to wheat, with very good soil moisture conditions for areas north of Dubai in central New South Wales (NSW) through to Queensland cropping areas.
Forward pricing signals as indicated by monopoly exporter AWB Ltd's wheat pool estimates were satisfactory, although lower than for the previous season, AWF said.
Soil moisture conditions through Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia states had been dry, as was normal for most summers and early autumns. Without some soil moisture reserves, growers were wary of committing high expenditures to crop inputs.
However, funds were available in those states for more expenditure on crops following the substantial good quality wheat production in the past season, AWF said.
The main driver of increased wheat plantings was continuing price problems in the wool industry, AWF said. This and the recent drought caused a decline in sheep numbers, requiring less land in agricultural areas for grazing.
On the next rain, growers in central Queensland would sow long-growing season high protein varieties, it said. Growers in the Geraldton port zone, particularly in the north, would also sow as soon as possible after the next rain.
Sowings in southern Queensland and northern NSW were likely to be delayed until May or June to reduce the risk of frost damage to flowering crops.
Growers would like to sow a large area to canola in southern areas of NSW, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia because it has the potential to generate higher returns.
But without some stored soil moisture this would represent a higher financial risk than a cereal crop, AWF said.
Lupines, chickpeas and Faber beans were crop options, which would compete with 2004 wheat hectares and decisive seasonal break in southern Australia, it said.
Spur-throated locusts, present in high numbers in central Queensland, were not likely to alter growers' wheat sowing intentions because the insects were scattered.
Australian plague locust adults concentrated in southern Queensland and north and north-western NSW had caused damage to emerging cereal crops, primarily oats.
But the time wheat crops should deplete emerged, adult locusts by a combination of spraying and low temperatures. A spring outbreak of locusts as autumn-laid eggs emerge could still pose a threat, possibly requiring spraying of some areas at that time, AWF said.
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