"Awe and shock" bombing of Baghdad ended the war in Iraq within 3 weeks, as against estimated 3 months. Now after full one year of victory, America is under awe and shock at the intensity of the resistance unsetting the timetable of honourable (i.e. with skin intact) withdrawal.
The hawks in US administration would have liked to extend the occupation a little longer to reap the fruits of victory. But the situation on the ground and the political exigencies of presidential elections at the end of the year demanded extraction of American forces bogged down in the quagmire of Iraq. Originally the intention was to hold a democratic election by end of June and hand over sovereignty so that Bush can come out smelling like roses. But it was not to be, because firstly the planning had nothing to do with altruism and it had a lot of strings attached to ensure a pre-American government. And secondly the people of Iraq deprived of democracy for ages were too divided to agree on a constitution under which elections could be held. If America had involved UNO right from the beginning, perhaps things could have worked out better. But it did not suit US objectives. Finding themselves in a quandary the administrator Paul Bremmer rushed through a provisional constitution. The authors being the members of the Governing Council appointed by the occupation authority, the document does not enjoy support of the divergent religious and ethnic groups contending for power.
Hitherto America was able to live with the persistent blood letting of its soldiers, because it was confined to the Sunni triangle around Baghdad with scattered killings from one day to another and the south was comparatively quiet. Now with the date for transfer of power approaching near, Shias have jumped into the fray. Young firebrand Muqtada-al-Sadar, a rival to the Shia leadership of matured, sober and sagacious Ali-al-Shistani, has thrown all caution to the winds and has joined the battle to force immediate and unceremonious departure of US forces from Iraq. Simultaneously Fallujah - the fortress of Sunni resistance - went amuck brutally killing four American security guards mutilating the bodies from limb to limb and dragging the corpses on the streets to be hanged under a bridge for stoning by the mobs. In the south Muqtada's Mehdi army fought a pitched battle with occupying forces which resulted in the death of hundreds of Iraqis and over a dozen of American troops. As an offshoot of terrorist activities several individuals from coalition partners and non-combatant civilians of different nationalities have been kidnapped and held captive. The frenzy of violence has horrified the world and the Americans are aghast at the sudden flare up of this magnitude. It brought back the memories of Somalia and the ghosts of Vietnam. It is not yet Dien-Bien-Phu as experienced by France but is grave enough to contemplate.
The occupation administration had no alternative but to respond with ruthless force to nip the trouble in the bud. Accordingly Najaf, the headquarters of Muqtada al-Sadar has been surrounded by Iraqi security and US troops to bring Muqtada to book. The objective being to nab him dead or alive. If arrested he would be tried for alleged engineering the murder of at Khui, another venerable Shia leader. Fallujah has been garrisoned to cleanse it of die-hard guerrillas. Militarily success would be achieved by using overwhelming force but the danger is that in the process innocent citizens would suffer, further antagonising the Iraqi public. Political and religious leaders are called upon as mediators to diffuse the crisis. It therefore, remains to be seen how the cookie crumbles.
When wars are waged with ostensible benevolent and benign purpose but in reality with a hidden agenda, the results are bound to be chaotic. The pre-emptive US attack against Iraq was one such war. America had declared that Iraq's WMD were a threat to US security and Iraq needed to be liberated from the atrocities being committed by Saddam against his own people who dared to differ with him. The American public may have swallowed the bait hook line and sinker but the rest of the world refused to be fooled and protested vigorously. But Bush went ahead in defiance of international protest and won the war but is bogged down in winning the peace.
By far and large most Americans now agree that the war on Iraq was a misadventure, misconceived and mishandled. As a matter of fact Bush has fallen from the frying pan into fire which is now becoming an inferno. The forthcoming election is making the bad situation worse as time is short for Bush to extricate himself. He has already lost face internationally and now he is losing it in his own country. History repeats itself. Bush senior won the Gulf War but lost the battle of the ballots, the junior seems to be heading the same way.
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