Chicago Board of Trade soyabean futures ended higher on Thursday on supportive US soyabean crush data and speculative buying, traders said.
The US Census Bureau reported on Thursday the US March soyabean crush at 129.5 million bushels, above an average of analysts' estimates for 128.5 million, but below the March 2003 crush of 142.7 million.
The data was supportive because analysts figure a drop of 18 percent per month in the US soya crush is necessary to meet the US Department of Agriculture's forecast for this marketing year's US soya crush.
Soyabean supplies in the United States are expected to drop to a 27-year low by the end of August, following two years of sub-par harvests and strong global and domestic demand.
CBOT soyabean futures ended up 1-3/4 cents to 20 cents, with July up 20 cents at $10.00 and November up 4-1/2 cents at $7.37.
Large speculative commodity funds bought about 5,000 contracts and commercials were net buyers, led by ADM Investor Services, brokers said.
Liquidation of May positions proceeded on Friday's first notice day for CBOT May soya futures, brokers said. They expected very few soyabean deliveries to be posted on Friday, up to 300 soyameal deliveries and no soyaoil deliveries.
Soyameal ended up $4.20 per ton to down $2.50, with July up $3.20 at $308.70 per ton. Commodity funds bought at least 1,100 lots and commercials were light net sellers, brokers said.
Soyaoil settled up 0.99 cent per lb. to down 0.20 cent, with July up 0.93 cent at 34.02 cents. Commodity funds bought at least 4,000 lots and commercials were also net sellers, brokers said.
Soyaoil found support from Thursday's US Census crush data and prospects that global buyers could turn to tight US supplies as top soyaoil exporter Argentina's 2003-04 soyabean crop disappoints.
Census reported US soyameal stocks at the end of March at 375,593 tons, in line with analysts' estimates, and end-March soyaoil stocks at 1.857 billion pounds, below estimates and last year's 2.247 billion pounds.
CBOT gains were limited by weekly soyabean export sales data, traders said. The USDA reported last week's soyabean export sales at 57,300 tonnes (old and new crop combined), below traders' estimates.
US soyameal exports totalled 70,200 tonnes (old crop), above traders' estimates, and soyaoil exports totalled 300 tonnes (old crop), below traders' estimates. Recent CBOT floor talk that China may have cancelled South American soyabean purchases and expectations for tightening credit in top US soya buyer China also limited gains.
Overnight US soya export business was quiet, while US Midwest cash soya basis bids were firm, brokers said. Deferred soya futures failed to keep pace with nearby months on Thursday on reports of good US fieldwork and planting progress amid nearly ideal spring weather, brokers said.
Still, the deferred were underpinned by reduced estimates for South America's 2003/04-soyabean production, they noted. Brazil is the second-largest global soya producer and Argentina is the third largest, behind the United States.
The South American crops are sorely needed this year amid tight US supplies and rising global demand soya, analysts note.
Brazil's IBGE statistics institute forecast Brazil's soya crop at 52.6 million tonnes, down from 56.9 million tonnes foreseen in March. Brazilian analyst's Safaris e Merced is expected to release their estimate on Friday.
Estimates for Argentina's soyabean crop were also expected to drop sharply in the coming weeks, as losses due to Asian soya rust disease combine with drought losses, CBOT traders said.
The USDA last forecast Argentina's crop at 35 million tonnes. The CBOT July soyabean crush margin closed down 2.73 cents at 53.36 cents per bushel.
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