Malaysia first-quarter GDP growth seen strongest in four years

Malaysia is expected next week to report the economy grew at its fastest rate in four years in the first quarter, boosted by its mainstay electronics exports and a rise in domestic spending, according to a Reuters poll.
A survey of 10 economists estimated the economy expanded 7.0 percent in the year through the first quarter, which would mark the strongest growth rate since 7.8 percent in the year through the third quarter of 2000.
The economy grew 6.4 percent in the year through the fourth quarter of 2003.
The central bank, Bank Negara, is due to issue gross domestic product (GDP) data on Wednesday. It doesn't provide seasonally adjusted figures on the change between quarters.
Economists said Malaysia's manufacturing-driven economy benefited from a rise in global appetite for electronics and commodities in the first quarter.
Malaysia's exports reached a record high in March at 38.8 billion ringgit ($10.2 billion), up 16.9 percent from a year earlier, to close a robust quarter.
Apart from exports, analysts said domestic demand was healthy in the first three months of the year, which they expect to be reflected in Wednesday's data.
But concerns are building over how record high oil prices will impact demand from Malaysia's global trading partners and over measures by China to slow its booming economy.
The oil industry in Malaysia, one of Asia's biggest crude producers, benefits from high oil prices. The country's benchmark Tapis crude is trading at more than $40 a barrel, its highest in 10 years, according to Reuters data.
But economists fear an oil-driven slowdown in global growth could hurt demand for Malaysia's exports.
"The Malaysian economy is currently strongly supported by exports and domestic demand," said Tomo Kinoshita, economic research chief with Nomura Securities in Singapore.
"But if oil prices go beyond the current level, the risk will not be negligible. Also, demand in China has pushed up commodity prices. With slower growth in the Chinese economy, the decline in commodity prices will negatively affect Malaysian exports."
China sucks in almost a tenth of Malaysia's exports.
Beijing has said forceful steps are needed to slow economic growth, which was 9.8 percent in the year through the first quarter.
Malaysia's neighbour, Singapore, reported strong economic numbers this week, posting a 7.5 percent rise in the year through the first quarter.
A separate Reuters poll this week predicted that Malaysian gross domestic product would expand 6.3 percent in 2004, in line with the government's forecast of 6.0-6.5 percent growth.
Malaysia's economy grew 5.2 percent last year.