New York cotton futures slumped to a lower close Monday on options-related and speculative sales as players dumped fiber contracts after release of a bearish USDA monthly supply/demand report, brokers said.
Key December cotton dove 1.15 cents to finish at 47.33 cents a lb, moving from 48.20 to a new contract low of 46.05 cents. Losses in other months ranged from 0.70 to 1.30 cents.
USDA said US cotton production in 2004/05 should reach 18 million (480-lb) bales, against trade estimates it would range from 17.9 to 18.4 million bales. US cotton exports were seen at 11.3 million bales, down from the preceding months 11.5 million.
World cotton output was seen at 104.73 million bales, from 102.88 last month. Global ending stocks are at 37.79 million from 35.35 million. Chinas output was upped to 30 million bales from 29 million and its imports were trimmed to 5.75 million from 6.25 million.
Sharon Johnson, cotton expert for Frank Schneider and Co Inc in Atlanta, said the USDA data provided the catalyst for the weakness in dealings. "Short-term, its weak," she said.
The speculators then piled in before fiber contracts ran into some covering off the lows, dealers said.
Market sources said the next critical USDA report will be the monthly USDA supply/demand report in August when players will get a firm idea of production and demand in key nations like the US, China, Turkey, India and Pakistan.
"This is all in preparation for the baggie next month," said Mike Stevens of Swiss Financial Services in Mandeville, Louisiana.
Brokers Flanagan Trading Corp feels resistance in December cotton would be at 47.50 and 48.50 cents, with support at 46.65 and 46 cents.
Floor dealers said estimated final volume amounted to 12,000 contracts, from the prior tally of 4,258 lots. Options volume was said to have likewise reached 12,000 lots, they said. Open interest rose 464 lots to 75,627 lots as of July 9.
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