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Eurozone economic indicators to be released in the coming week will point to a rise in industrial output as well as sluggishness on the part of consumers, economists said.
In Britain the data should reinforce expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rates another quarter point in August.
Eurozone industrial production is expected to post a solid gain for May as a result of strong German figures.
But the ZEW survey of analysts and fund managers should also show a slight downturn in economic confidence for the six months ahead, economists said.
The ZEW economic expectations index recovered slightly in June after five months of declines but still remains well below its December peak and is likely to slip back marginally in July.
"Reflecting the tendency for forward-looking indicators to weaken relative to the evidence of current, relatively robust growth, we expect growth in (euro zone) output and a decline in the ZEW index," said Ed Teather of UBS.
Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein economists said the ZEW should be showing a marked pickup at this stage of the cycle but noted that the German economy remained dependent on strong external demand while the domestic economy remains weak.
"If the mood on the outlook for the global economy worsens, the ZEW results could be pulled lower," they said.
The economic recovery generally is reliant on strong global growth and domestic demand remains subdued.
"Signs of a more enduring recovery in consumer demand are still tentative. This is keeping the recovery fragile," BNP Paribas economists said.
The Ifo, Insee and Isae institutes said on Thursday they expect foreign demand stimulus to weaken in the second half while domestic demand will probably only start to show signs of strengthening in the final part of the year.
Data on consumer confidence and spending will continue to be scrutinised closely for signs of an upturn, but there will be little cause for comfort in the coming week's data, economists said.
French household consumption is expected to show a small rise in June that will offset May's decline, but this is partly due to the impact of the summer sales season.
Meanwhile, the Italian consumer confidence index is expected to remain weak.
Annemarieke Christian of Morgan Stanley said political instability is weighing on consumer confidence in Italy.
Codogno said Italian consumer confidence was hovering near 10-year lows and although the modest decline in oil prices last month may have provided some support, the tone of the survey will remain extremely weak.
In Britain, which is not a member of the 12-nation eurozone, analysts said minutes to the July meeting of the Bank of England's rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee, out on Wednesday, should make for interesting reading given that it took place following evidence the household sector may finally be responding to higher borrowing costs.

Copyright Agence France-Presse, 2004

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