Despite enjoying necessary incentives, agriculture could not contribute to the achievement of macroeconomic objectives; and what is more disappointing is that the prices of most agricultural commodities, particularly food, continue to rise.
Among the major crops, wheat production after attaining a surplus position, dwindled in as much as that now its supplies are considerably short of domestic requirements. And after becoming an exporter of wheat, the country has again become an importer.
The TCP has already floated tenders to import 20 million tonnes of wheat from abroad, out of which some thousand tonnes, according to Press reports, have reached the shores of the country.
Prices: Both the wholesale and consumer prices are continuously on the increase. Examining the price data, collected and compiled by the Federal Agri-marketing Department, this increase comes to about 10 percent compared to three months figures of all the items, wheat atta (flour) is selling at prohibitive rates.
In Karachi its common rate in retail is Rs 20/- per kg. In sympathy with wheat flour the prices of various other flour items are looking up.
Although the government seems taking various steps and measures to control the situation very little success has been achieved.
Price stabilisation: Not only did the prices of food and other farm products have increased overtime, several price trends continued to show an upward graph.
This, despite appreciable increase in agricultural growth, is partly due to increase in government's determined prices of both agricultural and non-agri-cultural items.
The increase in utility prices has also an important factor in taking the general prices to a higher plane.
Government, after all, realising this abnormal rise in prices, which hard hit the consumers at large, has initiated a number of policy measures to provide some relief to them.
These measures include waiving of 10 percent import duty on sugar, withdrawal of 10 percent regulatory duty on the import of potato and its seeds and allowing the private sector to import meat and milk powder.
The network of utility stores has also been extended. These stores have also started to sell vegetable ghee and refined sugar at rates lower than the market prices.
The TCP has been directed to import certain food items in short supply. As stated earlier, besides wheat, import of refined sugar is being arranged by the TCP.
What to do: It is often seen that government agencies, supposed to apprise the government authorities of correct and unbiased position of supplies and prices at regular intervals, always try to paint a rosy picture and per chance, if they have to report for an adverse position, they endeavour to justify it and the express opinion that the prevailing adverse position is due to certain factors beyond their control.
This approach, as a matter of fact, is responsible for all the economic ills in the country.
In the past various efforts were made to introduce an early warning system (EWS) to forewarn the authorities concerned about any mishap in respect of prospecting crops right from the farmers intention to sow and ultimately to their harvesting and its effects on the supply and prices but due to the reasons best known to the concerned authorities the system could not work.
Another cause of our correcting the adverse situation effectively is our dependence or international agencies like the World Bank and IMF for obtaining credit. As 'beggars' cannot be 'choosers', we willingly or unwillingly have to surrender our destiny.
Therefore it can be stated without any fear that increase in prices of various commodities in the country, takes the place due to our blind commitments to the World Bank/IMF.
Still a very obvious loophole in planning our activities pertaining to various aspects of agriculture is that 'persuasion' and 'compulsion'. Frankly speaking, we keep our agriculture improving through indirect measures.
In order to induce the farmers to grow more, we have to raise the support prices of various crops. This measure - sometime works and sometime does not.
Therefore, there is need that an element of 'compulsion' may also be imposed on the farmers to achieve the desired and planned results.
One outright way is acreage control. But, perhaps it would be a very difficult job when, presently the farmers are free to sow what, when and where. In the circumstances, we shall have to find a midway between 'persuasion' and 'compulsion'.
It can be done by seeking advice from the international experts on the subject in FAO, as well as through obtaining guidance of the agriculturists in the agriculturally-advanced countries.
It may be concluded that for our country, acreage control in one way or other is necessary to keep the production of various crops at the desired levels, to avoid shortages and gluts. Thus macroeconomic objectives are most likely to be achieved.
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