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Japanese stocks are expected to drop this week as high oil prices and another big sell-off on Wall Street conspire against a generally positive domestic outlook.
Brokers said buyers were also likely to hold off ahead of a rate-setting meeting of the US Federal Reserve.
US stocks closed at their lowest levels of the year on Friday as a weaker-than-expected July jobs report stirred fears about the economy of Japan's biggest trading partner.
"Since US stocks turned lower at the end of June, global stock markets have followed suit," said Tetsuya Ishijima, senior investment strategist at Okasan Securities.
"Two major concerns - the US economy and high oil prices - have dragged on the Tokyo market, and they will continue to be a drag," he said.
Analysts in Tokyo said they still expected the Fed to raise rates on Tuesday, although the US central bank may become less aggressive in tightening later this year.
However, domestic factors are expected to remain broadly positive for Tokyo's Nikkei average, which hit a 10-week closing low on Friday.
Japanese gross domestic product data for the April-June quarter, to be released on Friday, is likely to mark the ninth straight quarter of expansion, the best streak since 1995-97.
Technical charts also indicate the Tokyo market is due to stage a short-term rebound as the Nikkei broke below its 200-day moving average, which stood at 11,048 as of Friday's close.
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to maintain its ultra-easy monetary policy at a meeting ending Tuesday.
Also, there is likely to be little institutional activity in the market as Japan's summer holiday season begins in earnest.
Last week, the Nikkei fell 3.11 percent to 10,972.57, its third-biggest weekly fall this year. Traders said it was likely to move between 10,700 and 11,300 this week.
Some analysts said a fall to 10,500 was possible.
"The market has, to some extent, factored in a good GDP number," said Nobuki Goto, general manager of investment research at Tokio Marine Asset Management. "My main concern is that the data may fuel views that the best days are behind us."
A Reuters poll of economists produced a median forecast for annualised growth of 4.1 percent for the quarter.
That compares with 6.1 percent in January-March and 7.3 percent in the three months to December.
Companies reporting first-quarter earnings this week include Japan Tobacco Inc, electronics parts maker Murata Manufacturing Co Ltd and Internet service provider Softbank Corp.

Copyright Reuters, 2004

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