NYBOT raw sugar futures closed softer on Tuesday on speculative long liquidation, which analysts feel will drag the market lower in the days ahead as funds wash out of positions built when the sweetener rallied to a 17-month high.
October sugar sank 0.15 cent to finish at 7.93 cents a lb, dealing from 7.86 cents to 8.06 cents. March fell 0.11 cent to 8.46 cents and back months lost 0.05 cent to 0.08 cent.
"It looks like its starting to break down," Judy Ganes of J. Ganes Consulting said, adding the market may be setting itself up for "a large correction," given the extensive long position of the funds in the market.
While the longer-term fundamentals for sugar look bullish on forecasts for a supply deficit in 2004/05 and increased demand from key consumers like India, the funds are overly long and would need to liquidate some of those positions to rebalance the market, traders said.
A steady fusillade of speculative sales pounded futures from the bell and the market did not get any semblance of support from trade accounts until the key October contract touched its lows for the day, floor sources said.
Call volume reached 7,744 lots and puts hit 13,897 lots.
Open interest in the No 11 sugar market rose 2,254 lots to 330,232 lots as of August 9. Ethanol futures ended flat again, with September settling at 97.50 cents a gallon, unchanged from Monday.
Final estimated volume stood at 191 lots, against the previous 524 lots.
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