Analysts expect USDA to edge US soya crop estimate up

The US grain analysts generally expect a record large soybean crop to be harvested this fall but most also say the jury is still out on final yields.
So analysts expect the US Department of Agriculture on Thursday to only slightly raise its already record 2004/05 US soybean crop production estimate, an acknowledgement that adverse August US weather could still cut yields. "Right now, we're in the critical window for US soybean yield determination, so I don't think anybody is going to stick their neck out on the chopping block," said Charlie Sernatinger, grain analyst at O'Connor and Co.
Most of the US soybean crop, grown in the Midwest, sees its key pod-setting and -filling stages during August, compared to corn which is planted ahead of soybeans and sees its key yield stage of pollination mostly in July.
The USDA on Monday rated 73 percent of the soybean crop in good to excellent shape as of Sunday, with 69 percent setting pods. USDA's Thursday production and supply/demand estimates as of August.
"I think they (USDA) might be a little bit more conservative, just because of what happened last August -- not that there is any indications that there are problems this year," said Randy Mittelstaedt, analyst at R.J. O'Brien.
A sudden switch to hot, dry weather and insect infestations in late July and August last year battered US soybean yields in Iowa, Minnesota and other key areas.
Total US production fell 12 percent from the prior year and Chicago Board of Trade soybean prices spiralled up to reach a near 16-year high of $10.64 by April.
By contrast, new-crop CBOT November soybeans on Thursday closed down 8-3/4 cents at $5.62 per bushel.
For Thursday's USDA report, the average analyst estimate for US 2004 soybean production was 2.958 billion bushels, with a yield of 40.24 bushels per acre. Thursday's report will be the first for yields based on actual USDA field inspections.
Those estimates compare with USDA's July projections for a crop of 2.940 billion bushels based on a 39.90 bushel yield.
Last year's US soy crop was 2.418 billion bushels, while the record US harvest was 2.89 billion bushels in 2001.
For other oilseed data, analysts expected USDA to raise slightly its 2004/05 soybean end-season stocks estimate, following an expected boost in its crop production outlook.
The average estimate for 04/05 end-stocks as of September 1, 2005, was 255 million bushels, up from 210 million in July.
Analysts on average expect the USDA's 03/04 soy ending stocks estimate to be 106 million bushels, up from its July estimate of 105 million. That will still be the smallest end-season soybean stocks level in 27 years.