There's little doubt that spiking oil prices could damage some of the world's currencies, especially those of countries like Japan and United States that import so much energy.
Yet it hasn't happened so far, partly because many in the currency markets are not yet convinced high oil prices - threatening to hit $50 a barrel - are here to stay.
The yen is the most vulnerable currency, because Japan, the world's second-biggest economy, imports all its petroleum.
"The yen is one of the candidates that should weaken off during really high oil prices," said Jason Daw, a senior G10 foreign exchange strategist with Merrill Lynch in New York. But the Japanese currency's resiliency of late, especially during the last week, may reflect that "people just think it (high oil) is a temporary phenomenon," he said.
Even as oil prices have climbed to new highs, the yen has firmed. The euro has slipped from a peak earlier this week near 137.0 yen to 134.34 yen on Friday in New York.
Also this week, the pound, the currency of net oil exporter Britain, has slipped from around 203.50 yen to around 199 yen on Friday.
One explanation is that strong Japanese economic data is helping boost the yen, offsetting the effect of pricey oil, analysts said.
"Dollar/yen has certainly reflected positive economic news despite high oil prices. This is a much stronger correlation than that of oil," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist with the Bank of New York.
For now, that has helped cushion the yen against the depressive effects of elevated oil prices. But it and other major currencies could yet be badly hurt, analysts said.
DOLLAR ALSO EXPOSED: "Oil rising seems to be cooling the US economy and that's something that's not dollar bullish," said Chris Rupkey, economist with Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.
Some recent data have signalled that the US economy is growing at a slower clip, causing dollar selling. Analysts are scouring economic data for clues about whether the economy has hit a speed bump, or whether the recovery in the world's biggest economy is running out of momentum.
If pricey oil acts as a tax on disposable income and hits consumer spending, that could dent US economic growth.
While the currencies of net oil exporters such as Norway and Canada clearly stand to benefit from high oil prices, the currencies of economies that are most reliant on imported oil are likely to suffer, analysts said.
Aside from the yen, the Australian dollar, the Turkish lira, the Korean won and the Philippine peso are vulnerable to costly oil, Daw said.
But over the long term, if expensive energy slows the world economy, that would take its toll on a wider array of currencies, as well as the oil producers.
"Oil is always a double-edged sword. It helps those countries that export it to some extent. But on the other hand, if it harms growth, those same countries can actually be hurt in the long run," said Daniel Katzive, foreign exchange strategist with UBS in Stamford, Connecticut.
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