The battle lines have been drawn. Incarcerated opposition member Makhdoom Javed Hashmi is pitted against Shaukat Aziz, the government nominee for the premiership, for the battle royal. No great fortune-teller is required to predict that the official candidate will win hands down, and that is not the ball game. But what could possibly happen as collateral to the government victory is indeed of great interest.
Shaukat Aziz should get 189 votes, one vote less than what his predecessor Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain got two months back. The missing vote would be of the member from Tharparkar who had resigned for Shaukat Aziz. That seat is now vacant, as the PM-designate has surrendered that seat.
Fielding Hashmi is the cleverest thing the ARD did in many months. Although convicted the opposition member is still the member of the National Assembly.
He remained on the rolls of the assembly, as the Speaker himself has no powers to cancel the membership. Strangely enough after he was convicted, none from the government side moved the Election Commission for cancellation of Hashmi's membership. Now it was too late, because the cancellation process would have taken at least a month. And, it would have also delayed the election of the new prime minister, a risk the Establishment could not take.
The MMA has welcomed the candidature of Makhdoom Javed Hashmi, but the pledge to support him in the election is expected on Friday morning. Earlier, the MMA had informally committed to vote if Hashmi would be the opposition candidate, and not to participate in the election should the PPPP field its candidate.
However, for the MMA the election can confront it with the Hobson's choice. In case it supports the ARD candidate the votes Javed Hashmi would bag are expected to be more than the number that formed the basis for the appointment of Maulana Fazlur Rehman as the Leader of Opposition in the National Assembly. In that situation Hashmi should be the new Leader of Opposition.
As Leader of Opposition in the National Assembly Makhdoom Javed Hashmi would be required to be present in the house for every sitting. And, still more importantly by virtue of his position as the Leader of Opposition he would be the member of National Security Council also. Imagine Hashmi, convicted for a defence-related offence, siting opposite President General Pervez Musharraf on the same table.
This is just one dimension of the dilemma of the Pakistani politics. What else can happen in the wake of election of the new prime minister is as unpredictable as was the turn of events that took place during the last 12 hours.
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