Private group Australian Wheat Forecasters (AWF) has held its forecast for the nation's wheat crop at a record 26 million tonnes, despite dry weather in the growing season that has held back other industry estimates.
AWF Managing Director Brian Bailey said the group's latest estimate was 26.02 million tonnes, only marginally down on its August 9 estimate of 26.08 million tonnes and still well above last year's record of around 25 million tonnes.
Government forecaster, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE), expects a crop of 23.3 million tonnes, while national wheat exporter AWB Ltd is forecasting a crop of between 21 million tonnes and 24 million tonnes.
AWF puts the size of last year's record crop at 24.72 million tonnes, AWB at 25.2 million tonnes and ABARE at 24.92 million tonnes. Bailey said the balance of the expected 2004/05 wheat crop was shifting, with less expected to be produced in Queensland, which has been hardest-hit by dry weather.
Southern New South Wales would also produce less than first expected because of dry weather, he said. Rain, which fell this week in Queensland, was too late to save much of the crop in that state.
"Crops in central Queensland have failed, apart from irrigated crops," he said. "(But) the Victorian crops which we have inspected are holding on very well. Sure they'll need rain through September, but on the basis of that they look pretty good," he said.
South Australia was unchanged from the last forecast a month ago, while Western Australia had improved, he said.
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