A US intelligence report prepared for President George W. Bush in July offered a gloomy outlook for Iraq through the end of 2005, with the worst scenario being a deterioration into civil war, US government officials said on Thursday.
The report is at odds with the generally optimistic tenor of the Bush's administration's public statements on Iraq, although Bush said last week it was "still tough" there but insisted elections would be held as scheduled in January despite doubts.
The National Intelligence Estimate, which is a compilation of views from various intelligence agencies, predicted three possible scenarios ranging from a tenuous stability to political fragmentation to the most negative assessment of civil war, the official told Reuters on condition of anonymity.
"There doesn't seem to be much optimism," the official said.
Another official added, "It's a difficult environment, a challenging environment."
As recently as Wednesday, the White House was maintaining a positive tone about progress in Iraq.
"You know, every step of the way in Iraq there have been pessimists and hand-wringers who said it can't be done," White House spokesman Scott McClellan had said.
Officials said the 50-page classified intelligence report lays out the challenges ahead so US policy-makers can address them, and intentionally looks at worst-case scenarios like the possibility of civil war.
The July estimate was initiated under former CIA Director George Tenet, who stepped down in July. The conclusions were reached before the recent worsening of Iraq's security situation.
Iraq has been gripped by an insurgency involving constant attacks on US soldiers and Iraqi civilians and the kidnapping and beheading of foreigners. More than 1,000 American troops have died.
On Thursday, gunmen snatched two Americans and a Briton from a Baghdad house.
Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry has been harshly critical of Bush's decision to take the United States into war in Iraq. A new television ad by a Kerry-supporting organisation, Moveon.org, included the line: "George Bush got us into this quagmire. It will take a new president to get us out."
UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, in a report to the Security Council last week, said the persistent violence in Iraq would make it difficult to hold elections in January.
The previous National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq in October 2002 has been highly criticised for its assessments that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, when no large stockpiles have been found since the US invasion in March 2003.
The 2002 report was a key piece of intelligence used by the Bush administration in making its case for going to war. It was later criticised for not taking into account dissenting views from some intelligence agencies about the status of Iraq's banned weapons programs.
National Intelligence Estimates are produced by the National Intelligence Council, which reports to the CIA director.
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