Former Czech president Vaclav Havel is best placed to win this year's Nobel Peace Prize while US President George W. Bush has no chance, an online betting site predicted on Thursday, three weeks ahead of the official announcement.
On the Australian internet betting site Centrebet, Havel, who headed the 1989 Velvet Revolution and served as Czech president until 2003, is the bookies' favourite with five-to-one odds.
He is closely trailed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and its chief Mohamed ElBaradei, with six-to-one odds.
The winner of the 2004 Nobel Peace Prize will be announced in Oslo on October 8. This year, a record 194 individuals and organisations are in the running, but the list of nominees is, as tradition dictates, a closely-guarded secret.
Among betters' other favourites are those whose names often circulate in the Nobel context but who have never won the prestigious prize.
They include US Senators Richard Lugar and Sam Nunn, the initiators of a nuclear disarmament project, and Sweden's Hans Blix, the former head of the UN weapons inspectors in Iraq.
Israel's nuclear whistleblower Mordechai Vanunu, released this year after 18 years in prison, Cuban dissident Oswaldo Paya and Pope John Paul II are also among the hot names.
Yet others include Irish rock star Bono, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, former Indian prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and French President Jacques Chirac.
As for Bush, the "war president" who is running for re-election in November, odds of him winning the Peace Prize are currently at 1,001-to-one, tied for last place with Prime Ministers Tony Blair of Britain and John Howard of Australia, as well as former Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic.
Last year the Nobel Peace Prize, which consists of a gold medal and 10 million Swedish kronor (1.2 million euros, 1.3 million dollars), was awarded to Iranian human rights activist Shirin Ebadi, the first Muslim woman to win the award.
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