UK's Allied grain sees 2004 wheat crop at 15.8 million tonnes

UK wheat output jumped by more than 10 percent this year, encouraged by a sharp rise in plantings and stronger yields, Britain's third-largest grain trader, Allied Grain, said on Monday.
But heavy rains and warm, humid weather in the run-up to harvest hit quality hard, particularly in northern areas, where much of the crop has since been downgraded to feed-quality.
The company, a unit of UK food conglomerate Associated British Foods said wheat production would come in at 15.757 million tonnes, up from 14.288 million in 2003. It said the average yield was 7.92 tonnes a hectare against 7.8 previously.
"This is one of the most difficult harvests I can remember, mainly because of the very, very wet August," regional director for the English region told reporters. Allied Grain predicted an exportable wheat surplus of 3.37 million tonnes for 2004/05 (July-June), up from around 2.2 million previously.
Poor harvest quality would lead to 1.45 million tonnes of quality wheat imports this season.
Britain imported only 894,000 tonnes of wheat from mainly Canada, Germany and France in 2003/04 although the 10-year average is 1.1 million tonnes.
Allied Grain said exporters would need to be highly competitive to move the surplus. It said 2.2-2.5 million tonnes of wheat would be shipped within the EU, the rest to third countries. "We may have to compete with corn going into south-east Asia to compete, UK feed wheat needs to priced around 55 pounds basis FOB," the company said, noting that the current price was 69 pounds FOB for 25,000-tonne vessels.
Allied Grain said UK growers threshed just over 5.8 million tonnes of barley in 2004, more than eight percent less than in 2003 due a further decline in the planted area and a slight reduction in yields.
It estimates 2004/05 barley exports at 479,000 tonnes, sharply down from 900,000 tonnes a year. UK rapeseed output fell despite a rise in sowings, the company said. "Establishment was variable in autumn (2003) and some crops had to be re-drilled.
There was a lack of sunshine over summer and later crops suffered from sprouting," Allied Grain trader Richard Pratt said.
The company put 2004 rapeseed output in Britain at 1.548 million tonnes, a drop of 11.4 percent on the 1.748 million harvested previously. Last week, Britain's farm ministry DEFRA said growers planted wheat on nearly two million hectares for the 2004 harvest, around 8.4 percent more than in the previous year.