Survey sees no winner in key Indian state election

India's ruling Congress party is unlikely to win a majority in a key Indian state poll this month, a survey said on Tuesday, due to what is seen as the poor performance of its government there over the last five years.
However, the opposition Hindu nationalist alliance will also not secure a majority as voters are set to return a hung assembly in the western state of Maharashtra in elections to be held on October 13, it said.
The election is being fought over local issues and is not seen as a barometer of the performance of the Congress party at the national level after its surprise sweep to power in May.
But a victory in Maharashtra, India's second largest state and home to Bombay, the country's financial hub, is expected to be a big boost ahead of more state elections next year.
Congress, along with its ally, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), would secure 132 seats in the 288-member state assembly, short of the 145 seats needed for a majority, said the opinion poll published by the Indian Express newspaper.
Analysts say a spate of suicides by farmers due to rising debt, the death of tribal children due to malnutrition, power shortages in villages and a general anti-incumbency feeling - the traditional unhappiness of voters against the party in power - are likely to hurt the Congress in Maharashtra.
The Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its hard-line ally, Shiv Sena, are expected to win 111 seats, a loss of 30 seats from its 1999 tally, the survey said.
Votes are due to be counted on October 16 and results announced the same day.
The BJP suffered a shock defeat in national elections this summer and is hoping that the Maharashtra election will mark a turnaround for the party.
"With neither alliance likely to win a majority, the field is open for independents," the survey said referring to the large number of candidates contesting without party affiliation.
Analysts said the support of independent candidates would determine who would form a government in the event of an inconclusive verdict.
Opinion polls have a mixed record in India. Most surveys were way off the mark when they predicted an easy victory for the BJP in national elections earlier this year.