Shares of Google Inc jumped 13 percent to $167 on Friday after the Web search leader posted its first results as a public company, and one broker said the stock could hit $200, rekindling dot.com-era fervour.
Prudential Equity Group analyst Mark Rowen repeated his "overweight" investment rating on Google and raised his price target for the stock to $200 from $130 after what he called "blowout" results. The $200 target could be 12 to 18 months out, he said in a note to investors.
The Google surge was an echo of the go-go investment era of the late 1990s, when former stock analyst Henry Blodget famously set a $400 price target on online retailer Amazon.com and saw the stock vault toward the target in a matter of hours.
After the research note, shares rocketed to $175 in pre-opening trading, up 17.8 percent from where it closed on Thursday before the company reported its third-quarter results. The stock was up $19.12 at $168.50 in early trading on the Nasdaq.
"In our opinion, an investment in Google is, in effect, an ownership stake in a company with maximum exposure to the online advertising market's fastest growing format," Rowen said.
In Google's report, revenue from advertisements on its own Web sites grew 99 percent to $411.7 million from a year earlier. Total revenue jumped 105 percent to $805.9 million.
In calculating his price-target, Rowen said his $200 target assumes a price-to-earnings multiple of 76 times his raised profit estimate of $2.62 per share for fiscal 2004, or 54 times his higher 2005 estimate of $3.67.
It also assumes sustained 50 percent year-on-year compounded annual growth for Google to justify such a valuation in most investors' lifetimes.
Citing a standard Wall Street valuation measure, Rowen said Google's price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio amounted to around 1.5 for 2004 and 1.1 in 2005. "We believe (these) are quite reasonable compared with those of other growth companies."
He compared his valuation of Google to those of its Internet peers - companies like Yahoo Inc or eBay Inc - which he noted now commanded even more speculative valuations.
Yahoo now trades at 105 times his fiscal 2004 estimate, and a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 3.0, he noted.
The S&P 500 Index trades at 15.4 times year-ahead earnings, amounting to a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 1.3, Rowen said.
Rowen declined to comment further, citing a company policy of not speaking to reporters.
Google makes it difficult to forecast earnings because the company refuses to comment on Wall Street forecasts of quarterly earnings.
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