SovEcon forecasts Russia's sunseed production in 2004 at 4.3-4.55 million tonnes, in line with late September forecast of 4.25-4.6 million tonnes and down from 4.87 million tonnes last year.
A decline in production combined with active demand from oil crushers has raised domestic prices to a historically high level. By October 19, all Russian farms had threshed 4.14 million tonnes of sunseeds from 3.6 million hectares.
It accounted for 75 percent of the total area sown to sunflowers, against 73 percent last year, and around 50 percent in 2001-2002.
A delayed start to harvesting in the Black Earth region (Central district) in September was followed by a spell of rather dry and warm weather in the first decade of October, which favoured the harvesting progress.
In the Southern district, the pace of the harvesting is close to normal. In the Privolzhsk district, the harvesting campaign speed is well ahead of the average.
In most regions, sunflower yields remain above average, except for the Black Earth and Altai (Table 1). A decline in the production expected in the Central district and a better crop expected in the Privolzhsk district offset Altai.
SovEcon therefore forecasts Russia's total output at about 4.4 million tonnes, or in the range of 4.3-4.55 million tonnes, as compared to 4.87 million tonnes in 2003 (Table 2).
A decline in output coupled with an increase in the domestic crushing capacities has resulted in a surge of domestic sunseed prices to 8,000 roubles ($276) per tonne EXW, which is a historical high for this period of time.
Rapid progress of the harvesting may slow down the price surge. At any rate Russia's sunseed exports in 2004/05, if they take place at all, will be negligible. Moreover, a further increase of the domestic prices may encourage some crushers to process imported soyabeans.
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