Britain's Tony Blair is set to hold a referendum on a European Union constitution in early 2006, giving the prime minister a long and clear run at a "Yes" campaign to avoid a potentially career-ending defeat.
Rejection of the treaty would make a mockery of Blair's pledge to put Britain at the heart of Europe and shatter his credibility as a leader who can sway the British people, precipitating his exit from office, analysts say.
But with opinion polls showing most Britons oppose the new charter and some members of Blair's ruling Labour Party vowing to campaign against it, Blair faces an uphill struggle.
"No precise date has been accepted and it depends partly on the parliamentary process. It is likely to be in early 2006," Foreign Secretary Jack Straw told BBC Radio from Rome, where EU leaders on Friday signed the constitution for an enlarged bloc.
He declined to confirm reports that it will be in March of 2006. Straw said Britain's EU presidency in the second half of next year made it almost impossible to call a referendum sooner.
His comments all but confirm that Blair will call a general election early next year, which his Labour Party is set to win.
By leaving the referendum until 2006, Blair can keep the issue of Europe, which fuels passions in Britain, on the margins of the election. He can then use Labour's expected victory as a springboard to a "Yes" campaign, analysts say.
Blair initially ruled out a vote on the treaty but with the opposition Conservative Party threatening to turn it into a key election issue, Blair made a dramatic U-turn in April.
The timing of the referendum could also let Blair off the hook, analysts say.
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