A selection of comments from analysts on important technical developments in the foreign exchange market.
CRUDE OIL: "Posted its third bearish key day reversal in the past 12 trading days with each reversal contributing to the negative triple momentum divergence on the daily chart. Since the first of these key day reversals, crude has rallied an incremental $1.53 (compared to $6.39 in the prior 12 trading days). Momentum is flagging and there is a real danger that this could become a serious correction. Look for a weekly close below $51.95 on the December futures to confirm a bearish weekly reversal off the absolute high of the bull market and give accelerated losses to at least $47.30-$49.40 and possibly as low as $42.10-50."
EURO/YEN: "Euro/yen held the top of its 17-month triangle yesterday and would post a bearish weekly reversal on a close on Friday below 135.37 yen. This close if achieved would suggest a move back towards 131.65 yen (30 August low) with interim support at 134.60 and 133.75."
EURO/SWISS FRANC: "A close today below 1.5313 francs would be a bearish monthly reversal off the high of the rally since June and suggest a danger of material losses. The last bearish monthly reversal posted was in March this year culminating in a 1.5864 to 1.5037 move by June. (A period characterised by dollar strength euro/dollar went from $1.2542 to $1.1760 and fixed income weakness 10-year yields went from 3.64 percent to 4.88 percent)"
DANIEL KATZIVE, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, UBS:
DOLLAR/YEN: "Bear trend intact with recovery beyond 107.15 yen minimally required to offset bearish threat. 105.66 break exposes 105.08.
STERLING/DOLLAR: "Consolidates recent gains with failure below $1.8160 required to expose steeper reversal."
DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC: "Key resistance is located at 1.2130/40 francs with broader bearish outlook intact below this area."
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR/US DOLLAR: "Consolidates recent gains with failure below US $0.7370 minimum needed to expose steeper correction. US $0.7534 next upside hurdle." Currency bid prices at 11:31 am (1531 GMT). All data taken from Reuters calculated from the levels at 4:30 p.m. (2030 GMT) in the previous New York session.
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