George W. Bush's resounding victory in US polls is a relief for his close ally Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf, who may be pressed to get tougher with militants but will not be forced to toe a more democratic line, analysts said on Thursday.
"I would think that in his heart of hearts Musharraf was definitely hoping Bush would win," military analyst and retired general Talat Masood told AFP. "There may be a huge sigh of relief in Islamabad over Bush's re-election," concurred Riffat Hussein, professor of security studies at Islamabad's Quaid-e-Azam University.
Bush and Musharraf, the general who came to power through a bloodless coup in 1999 and has refused to cede it, had an "excellent personal chemistry," Hussein noted.
The two were thrust into a tight alliance after the September 11, 2001 attacks precipitated a foreign policy back flip by Musharraf. He abandoned Afghanistan's Taliban rulers within days and gave Pakistani air bases, corridors and intelligence to US forces to help overthrow the hard-line regime.
Musharraf's army has since handed over more than 500 al Qaeda suspects to the US including prized trophies Khalid Sheikh Mohammad, Ramzi bin al Shaibh and Abu Zubayda.
This year it arrested some of the new generation of key al Qaeda leaders. Washington has rewarded Islamabad with debt cuts, massive aid boosts and trade privileges. The appreciation has gone beyond the economy to tolerance of Musharraf's unelected sweeping powers - something on which the Democrats were expected to take a tougher stance.
"In view of the larger overriding strategic interests in Pakistan's role in the war on terrorism and its pivotal role in helping the US stabilise Afghanistan, issues of democracy have been given short shrift under the Bush administration," Hussein said. "There were really not any great pressures on Musharraf to take the country in the direction of genuinely pluralistic democracy or to take off his uniform," Hussein said.
"But the perception in Islamabad was that if Kerry won, these issues might have been put at center stage and may have created friction between Islamabad and Washington."
Bush was unlikely to translate his convincing new mandate into a bigger troop deployment to Afghanistan, Hussein said.
"The war in Iraq has diluted Bush's focus on Afghanistan and as long as the US remains mired in difficulties there he will have very little resources, attention and energy available to focus on Afghanistan," Hussein said.
Fresh attention to Afghanistan was more likely to come in the form of reconstruction and democracy-strengthening assistance, such as bolstering the fight against rampant opium poppy farming and diluting warlords' powers.
Berated by his Democrat challenger John Kerry for failing to nab Osama bin Laden, Bush may feel compelled to press Musharraf to step up the hunt for the al Qaeda chief.
Bin Laden taunted US voters on the eve of the election with a video showing him healthier than ever. He is believed to be along the Pakistan-Afghan border.
"The second Bush administration will have to pursue Osama bin Laden and fixed high-value targets. The US will always remain under pressure until Osama is found. Dead or alive he must be found," Masood said.
"The people have given him (Bush) a mandate to pursue his policies world-wide with vigour.
Bush could also press Musharraf to revive anti-extremist policies which have been shelved due to political expediency, such as the modernisation of Koranic schools considered breeding grounds for Taliban and al Qaeda fighters.
A second-term Bush would also get tougher on nuclear export and proliferation controls.
But he was thought unlikely to press for a prosecution or even interrogation of nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, who was pardoned by Musharraf after confessing to selling nuclear secrets around the world.
"I think Bush's people realise Pakistan has limitations so it would be useless at this point in time to press for his prosecution," Masood said. "The Democrats would have insisted more on democracy and they would have had different ideas on nuclear proliferation.
"Surely Musharraf is more comfortable and better off with Bush than he would have been with Kerry," Masood said.
Comments
Comments are closed.