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The dollar dropped to an all-time low against the euro on Wednesday ahead of a G20 finance ministers' meeting in Berlin as analysts fretted that officials would do little to stem the currency's fall. A stream of quite upbeat US economic data was largely ignored because currency traders are more focused on long-term factors that are hurting the dollar, including the wide US current account deficit and global foreign exchange policy.
A German government source said the officials from 20 rich and emerging market nations do not plan to issue a statement on currencies at talks starting on Friday.
Analysts were hoping that G20 finance ministers and central bank chiefs would exert pressure on China to let its yuan currency rise against the greenback. The yuan has been pegged at around 8.28 to the dollar since the mid-1990s, which has kept Chinese exports more competitive in the global trade market.
However, President George W. Bush is likely to raise US concerns about China's currency policies when he meets at a summit in Chile with Chinese President Hu Jintao, a senior US official said on Wednesday.
The dollar slipped to new 7-month lows against the Japanese yen shortly after the official's remarks. Any increased market speculation that China might revalue the yuan tends to bolster the Japanese yen because of trade links between the two countries.
Friday's G20 gathering of rich and emerging market nations overshadowed a hefty rise in US consumer prices for October, a surge in US housing starts and a jump in industrial production, analysts said, with the dollar showing little reaction to the generally positive US economic data.
"The dollar is going to be driven by policy, what (Treasury Secretary John) Snow says, and what happens in the G20 meeting, more than US economic data," said Larry Brickman, currency strategist at Bank of America in New York.
Snow, who was in London, appeared to downplay any hopes of a weekend G20 accord to slow the US currency's decline.
Snow's comments should be interpreted globally "as a very strong signal that the US is not going to work to keep this dollar strong and it's not going to intervene," said Lara Rhame, foreign exchange strategist, Credit Suisse First Boston in New York.
The euro soared to all-time peaks around $1.3047, against the US currency, according to Reuters data.
Early afternoon in New York, the euro was trading at $1.3033, up 0.6 percent on the day.
Earlier, traders said real money accounts, such as asset managers, were selling dollars and buying Asian currencies, breaking options barriers for the euro around $1.3010 and exacerbating the euro's move higher.
"This isn't about economic differentials or interest rates. The dollar's well-offered and I think this weakness is going to continue," said John McCarthy, director of currency trading, ING Capital Markets in New York.
"The market continues to ignore any news that might be construed as positive for the dollar," he added.
The dollar fell to a new seven-month low around 103.82 yen according to Reuters data, down 1.4 percent on the day.
The US currency also dropped to a nine-year low against a basket of currencies. Against the Swiss franc, the dollar sank to an 8-1/2-year low at 1.1628 francs.
Most players expect the dollar to remain under pressure for as long as the market focuses on the US current account deficit and believes Washington wants a weaker dollar to curb it.

Copyright Reuters, 2004

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