Global 2004/05 production of the seven main oilseeds of 368.9 million tonnes will be above season consumption of 350.4 million tonnes and prices are likely to start falling in December, Hamburg-based newsletter Oil World forecasts. Its production estimate is up by 2.0 million tonnes from its late October forecast but its consumption forecast is up by only 900,000 tonnes.
"A more pronounced increase in oilseed crushings is currently considered not realistic as this would create an extreme oversupply of oilmeals," it said.
World 2004/05 soyabean output was estimated at 222.2 million tonnes, up 1.2 million tonnes from the previous estimate and from 185 million tonnes last season.
US soyabean prices were currently supported by disease fears. "But we expect lower prices in December," it said. "Price pressure will be mainly in US soyabean futures and this will spillover into the meal and oil pits."
"We also expect downward pressure on sunflower oil prices in the near to medium term...in the next few weeks we also expect downward pressure on rapeseed and oil prices in Europe."
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