Australia's premier winter grains crops output is expected to fall by more than 20 percent after recent hot, dry weather, with the government's commodities unit downgrading its forecasts for a second time. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) cut its latest forecast for the April/March 2004/05-wheat crop by 9 percent, for barley by 15 percent and for canola by 21 percent.
It lowered its forecast for total winter grains production by 11 percent from its September estimate to 31 million tonnes, down 21 percent on a record 39.39 million tonne in 2003/04.
"The estimated winter crop production in 2004/05 is below the average achieved over the five years ended 2003/04, with dry and warm conditions across much of the Australian grain belt in September and October affecting crop development," ABARE's acting executive director Vivek Tulle said.
In the major agricultural state of New South Wales, plague locusts also damaged some crops, while other pests hit canola. "In some regions, plague locusts have caused damage to crops," he said.
Australian crops form a significant part of Asia's breadbasket, with its milling wheat crop the second largest source of exports in the world, its beer-making barley crop the largest source of exports in the world and its canola crop, used for cooking oil, the second largest export crop in the world.
Wheat production for the growing year to March 31 was forecast to decline to 20.15 million tonnes from a record 24.92 million tonne the year before. Barley was forecast to fall to 6.22 million tonnes from 8.63 million tonnes, while canola was forecast to fall to 1.22 million tonnes from 1.62 million tonnes.
ABARE's latest forecasts, its first since September, are in line with industry views and other forecasts.
Australia's monopoly wheat exporter AWB Ltd last week cut its forecast of the current wheat crop to 20-22 million tonnes, from its previous forecast of 21-24 million tonnes.
Private group Australian Wheat Forecasters on Monday cut its forecast of the Australian barley crop by 4 percent to 6.86 million tonnes.
It cut its forecast of the wheat crop to 20.78 million tonnes. Industry group the Canola Association of Australia this month cut its forecast of the current crop by a further 10 percent to 1.19 million tonnes.
However, ABARE boosted its forecasts for Australia's main summer crops because of increased water supplies, the result of rains, which partly disrupted the winter crop harvest.
The forecast size of Australia's cotton lint crop, the third largest source of exports in the world and a major source of supply for Asian spinners, was increased by 9 percent to 533,000 tonnes from the last forecast.
This would increase supply from a drought-affected 339,000 tonnes in 2003/04. Forecast rice production was increased slightly from the last forecast, to 559,000 tonnes. Australia is a significant exporter of quality medium grain rice.
Forecast production of animal feed grain sorghum was trimmed slightly to 2.02 million tonnes from 2.05 million in the previous forecast. But forecast production will still be up from 1.85 million tonne production in 2003/04.
Apart from domestic use, the grain is exported to Japan as feed for the country's prized beef industry.
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