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Iranian economy expanded 4.0 percent year-on-year in the three months to June 21, slower growth than in the previous quarter and below targeted growth of 6.8 percent, Central Bank figures released on Monday showed. There was better news, however, on Iran's current account surplus, which has narrowed sharply in recent years as the fast-growing economy sucked in imports.
Boosted by higher oil revenues due to a sharp rise in crude prices, the current account surplus surged to $2.394 billion in the six months to September 21, up from just $336 million in the same period a year ago.
The new figures, released on the bank's website (www.cbi.ir) also provided cheer on the jobs front, with the unemployment rate falling to 10.4 percent in the three months to June 21 compared with 11.2 percent in the previous quarter.
Inflation, on which the bank reports on a monthly basis, was running at an average annual rate of 14.8 percent in the month to October 21, just above the government target of 13.0 percent.
Ratings company Fitch last week lifted Iran's long-term foreign and local currency ratings to BB-minus from B-plus, praising moves to privatise the lumbering state-heavy economy and saying high oil prices had boosted Tehran's coffers.
However, the ratings agency warned an international debate on whether Iran was seeking atomic warheads would continue to weigh on the rating of Opec's second biggest producer.
Fitch, the only rating agency to measure Iran's sovereign credit risk, affirmed the short-term rating at single-B and said the outlook on long-term ratings was stable.
A ratings upgrade lowers the cost of sovereign borrowing in global capital markets, but analysts said Iran is unlikely to sell eurobonds since higher oil prices generated precious hard currency revenues for the government.
The 4.0 percent year-on-year GDP expansion from Mar. 20 to June 21 - the first quarter of the current Iranian year - was comprised of 4.5 percent growth in the oil sector and 3.9 percent growth in the non-oil sector.

Copyright Reuters, 2004

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