Global production of the 10 main oilseeds is likely to exceed consumption by about 22 million tonnes in 2004/05, leading to downward price pressure, Hamburg-based newsletter Oil World said. It has increased its estimate of 2004/05 world oilseed output to 379.8 million tonnes, over forecast consumption of 357.9 million tonnes.
That compared with 2003/04 production of 329.2 million tonnes and consumption of 335 million.
Upward revisions of soybean, rapeseed and cottonseed crops raised the forecast, it said.
World 2004/05 soybean production was now forecast at 225 million tonnes, above expected consumption of 205 million.
This followed an expansion of soybean plantings especially in Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay.
Last season's world soybean crop was 184.9 million tonnes and consumption 191.1 million.
"The tight (oilseed) stocks at the start of the season could be quickly refilled and a bearish supply scenario is shaping up for 2005," it said.
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