2004 was indeed a difficult year for the planet Earth. Apart from many a men-made on-going problems, it gave a parting kick at the end of the year in the shape of tusunami disaster of unprecedented magnitude. During the year international campaign to curb terrorism has fizzled out forcing the world to learn to live with it. Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, North Korea, Palestine and Kashmir hotspots have spilled over into 2005.
America won the war in Afghanistan and replaced Taleban with the so called democratic government of Karzai, a man of their choice. But the country has not been subdued. Taleban now called terrorists claim to have killed over 500 troops of the international peacekeeping force trying to maintain law and order and guide the country towards peace and democracy.
On the other hand in Iraq USA, for all practical purposes, has lost the war. America is now at its wits end to decide how to stop it becoming another Vietnam. It is intended to hold elections, hand over power to the Iraqis and pull out with a semblance of honour. But the insurgents are determined not to let it happen without having their pound of flesh, which is to humiliate the invaders. It does not matter to them if in the process their country is plunged into bloodshed and chaos.
Even if the US invasion was a mistake and the objectives have not been achieved, it would be a good thing for the Iraqi people to allow the elections to be held. Under the circumstances prevailing, there is little possibility that the results of the polls would be influenced by the present Iraqi administration or the occupiers of the country. It therefore, boils down to the determination of the minority Sunnis in Iraq not to allow the Shia majority their due share in power. In this respect they have direct or indirect support of the neighbouring Arab countries who do not want a Shia dominated country emerge in the Middle-East in addition to Iran which Saddam tried to demolish but failed. In the face of Sunni boycott and accelerated mayhem by the insurgents, it appears well nigh impossible to hold elections as scheduled. If still insisted upon, it may lead to an all out civil war to the detriment of the country.
Iran cannot remain indifferent to the developments in Iraq, but is not in the position to intervene. The clerics ruling the country are indubitably fully in control but their nuclear ambitions have made them international pariah. America and the West are determined to prevent acquisition of the bomb by another (after Pakistan) Islamic country and particularly one openly hostile to them. Iran is blowing hot and cold in negotiations with IAEA, taking advantage of US preoccupation with Iraq, but the scenario is fraught with unacceptable risks.
Palestine-Israel conundrum is in a melting pot following Arafat's demise. Once elections in Palestine are finalised to pick the next president, it should pave way for some serious negotiations. Both sides and the US-UK are optimistic of a breakthrough. But there would be many a slip between the cup and the lip.
North Korea has become an enigma to the world. Going by reports its economy is in a mess, the people have no food and the country has no friends and still it continues consistently to thumb its nose to the Superpower. The neighbours China, Russia, South Korea and Japan are trying to negotiate nuclear non-proliferation on behalf of the West as also to appease their own concerns but without success. As far as US is concerned neither stick nor carrot has worked. It is, therefore, debatable whether the new year would bring any resolution of the stalemate.
Kashmir problem between India and Pakistan is as old as Palestine-Israel impasse. Having failed to get UN Resolutions implemented, Pakistan neglected to pursue it actively until Kashmiris themselves belatedly launched a freedom struggle. By that time status-quo had firmed up and India was in no mood to relent being confident that the uprising could be put down by force. Pakistan encouraged and abetted jehadi volunteers to join the freedom struggle which let us admit, has backfired. Following 9/11 India termed it as terrorism and taking a leaf from American doctrine of pre-emptive strike decided to teach Pakistan a lesson. An all out invasion which could have become a nuclear war was narrowly avoided. At the beginning of the last year both countries opted to forsake force and resolved to rely on peaceful negotiations for settlement of disputes. Some progress has been made with adoption of confidence building measures, but from Pakistan's point of view India does not appear sincere to tackle the core issue of Kashmir. Thankfully negotiations have not broken down. It would be hoping against hope to expect final resolution in the current year.
Within Pakistan, with the end of uncertainty about The uniform, Musharraf is firmly entrenched in the seat for the next two years. But the political uncertainty and instability continues. ARD, in the absence of Nawabzada Nasrullah, is the shadow of its former self and MMA has weakened. The exiled leaders of PML-N and PPP are watching the situation from afar and will have to decide soon how to respond to the establishment's moves for reconciliation. In the meantime economy has turned a corner with expectation of over 6% GDP growth in the coming years. But a lot remains to be done towards poverty alleviation. Shaukat Aziz may not possess a magic wand but he would have to come up with an alternative to deliver on the promises if he wants to sustain his premiership.
Comments
Comments are closed.