Europe's fourth quarter earnings season kicks off in earnest this week with a host of top firms expected to confirm strong profits last year but company forecasts will be key as markets eye a slowing 2005. Fourth quarter results are expected to show that European company profits grew by 27 percent in 2004, taking gains over the past two years to more than 50 percent.
"We're feeling quite positive about the earnings season," said Michala Marcussen, a global strategist at Societe Generale Asset Management.
"European companies have been getting to grip with their cost base and the different macro indicators on sales volumes have been satisfactory - not booming, but quite satisfactory."
The pace is set to cool next year, with forecasts for earnings per share growth falling to around 10 percent as GDP growth slows and profit margins come under more pressure.
Initial indications from early results, from the pre-season "confession period" and from the more advanced US earnings season have confirmed the slowdown.
Markets will also be watching to see if the dollar can hold its 2005 gains, having climbed to a two-month high against the euro on expectations of rising interest rates in the United States.
German chip maker Infineon gets the ball rolling with its first-quarter results on Monday.
Infineon warned last week its quarterly profits and sales would be below market expectations, joining rivals including STMicroelectronics, Qualcomm and Advanced Micro Devices which have also highlighted weak industry conditions.
While nerves are on edge ahead of the earnings deluge, European equity markets have held up relatively well, with the FTSEurofirst 300 within a dozen points of the 2-1/2 year high it hit earlier this month.
"On any cash or dividend yields against bond yields, European equities look attractive," said Simon Hallet, a fund manager at ING Baring Asset Management.
Comments
Comments are closed.