Companies going on a recruitment drive, queues at consumer electronics shops, a spontaneous burst of private aid donations for tsunami flood victims - the New Year has brought new life to Germany's domestic economy. Economists picking through the entrails of positive business and consumer surveys say it is hard to ignore the good news.
The closely-watched Ifo business climate index hit an 11-month high in January, while the GfK research group's survey showed consumers were more willing to spend than at any time since the introduction of euro notes and coins in 2002.
But with new data next week expected to deliver record unemployment, and with high energy and commodity costs continuing to put pressure on manufacturers' margins, doubts remain about the strength of Europe's largest economy.
"Maybe the worst of the soft-patch (at the end of 2004) is over but we are not talking about strong growth and we still think Germany will underperform the eurozone this year," said Jean-Francois Mercier of Citigroup in London.
However, according to a Reuters poll on Friday, economists expect some more positive figures next week.
The BME/NTC purchasing managers index is seen rising for a second consecutive month to 52.0, while retail sales in December are seen climbing 1.7 percent month-on-month, backing retailers' claims of buoyant Christmas trade.
But hanging over the good news like a Sword of Damocles, unemployment data due on Wednesday - in the words of German Economy Minister Wolfgang Clement - will be "horrible".
Reforms that merged two benefits for jobless workers into one on January 1 will also have the statistical effect of pushing up registered unemployment by hundreds of thousands.
A German newspaper reported on Friday the Federal Labour Office, due to publish January jobs data on February 2, estimated the unadjusted unemployment total could climb to a post-war record 4.96 million, almost half a million more than in December.
The mid-range forecast of economists polled by Reuters was for unadjusted unemployment to touch the psychological 5.0 million threshold. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, the jobless total was seen climbing 150,000.
Many wonder if the government has done enough to prepare the average consumer for the news. "It will be a big challenge for politicians to explain what the causes are and what the figures mean," said Postbank economist Heinrich Bayer.
The government last week trimmed its 2005 growth forecast to 1.6 percent from 1.7 percent. Private consumption and company investment would make up for a slowdown in net exports, it said. But the same day Germany's central bank said it expected unadjusted growth of just 1.1 percent.
Scratch beneath the surface of the recent data and the grounds for caution become clear.
While accountancy firm KPMG and software maker SAP announced plans to expand their German workforces, other firms continue to shed jobs.
Siemens AG said on Friday it may cut 600 jobs at its German fixed-line telecoms business, while Deutsche Bank AG announced plans last month for nearly 2,000 layoffs.
The Ifo business climate rose mainly on the back of growing optimism among retailers and wholesalers, while their assessment of current conditions deteriorated, suggesting Christmas sales may not have been as bright as portrayed.
Germany's VDA car makers association revised down on Thursday its full year German sales forecast on the back of a disappointing start to New Year registrations.
Some question whether companies will be able to invest if they are unable to pass on high input prices to customers.
"If Ifo rises again for a couple of months and we get some concrete evidence from retail sales and domestic orders that domestic demand is picking up then we can be more confident we are getting out of this soft patch," Citigroup's Mercier said.
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