US cotton exports should increase when a government crop report is released this week, but further changes in other key figures are unlikely, industry analysts said Monday. The US Department of Agriculture will release its monthly supply/demand report on Wednesday at 8:30 am EST (1330 GMT). Sharon Johnson, cotton expert for Frank Schneider and Co Inc in Atlanta, said that at this time of the year, "these reports carry less weight as the crop size is known and any changes to demand are made incrementally over a period of several months."
Mike Stevens of Swiss Financial Services in Mandeville, Louisiana, said the only key change he expects in the USDA report would be an increase in the estimate for US 2004/05 (August/July) cotton exports.
Last month, USDA forecast US cotton exports at 12.7 million (480-lb) bales.
Stevens believes the figure "is going to be too low" and he would raise exports by 200,000 bales to 12.9 million.
Stevens' view was shared by John Flanagan of brokers Flanagan Trading Corp in North Carolina, who said in a report that an increase in exports should trim US cotton ending stocks by 300,000 bales to 7.4 million. Johnson's estimate of US cotton exports, on the other hand, stood slightly higher at 13 million bales.
"China still has 2 million to 3 million bales to buy from the US and our mix of quality and price is allowing sales to be made that would not otherwise occur," she said, adding a pick-up in shipments "should occur into this spring/summer as domestic supplies are depleted by foreign users."
Stevens said the figures from other countries contained in the USDA data could also see some "additional tweaking."
Production in China was estimated by USDA last month at 29.5 million bales. Most analysts expect this to eventually be cut to 26 million to 28 million bales. China is the world's largest producer and consumer of cotton.
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