Briefing the press on Tuesday in Islamabad on the conclusion of his Pakistan visit, the World Bank President, James D. Wolfensohn, said that the Bank will appoint a neutral expert for the Baglihar hydropower project dispute within two weeks' time. And further, it "will guarantee the implementation of the findings of the neutral expert." It indeed is reassuring that the Bank is playing its role as per Article IX of the Indus Waters Treaty, which provides for the settlement of issues that might constitute a breach of the treaty through a neutral expert, who is to help the two parties reach an agreement.
In the case of an implementation failure, the unresolved disputes are to be referred to an arbitration court. However, Wolfensohn expressed his inability either to set a timeframe for the neutral expert's findings or to prevent India from going ahead with construction activity on the controversial project, saying this does not fall under the Bank's jurisdiction.
Pakistan, of course, is confident of the correctness of its position, which is why it has referred the issue to the World Bank. But from its perspective, time is of essence. The bilateral discussions on the issue fell through only because, even though India wanted to continue the discussions, it had refused to accept Pakistan's suggestion that pending the resolution of the dispute it should stop construction activity on the project.
The neutral expert's decision and the ensuing process at the arbitration court might consume considerable time. In the meanwhile, India might complete the work and then find all sorts of excuses not to undo it. As it is, it has already indicated that it might complete the work, ahead of the original date, by the end of the current year.
In the likely event of Pakistan receiving a favourable verdict from the neutral expert as well as the arbitration court, it will not be enough for the Bank to say that it has fulfilled all the procedural responsibilities; it must also adopt practical measures to ensure that India complies with those decisions.
That may not be easy given that India already has taken on the airs of a big power. It will not be surprising if, following in the footsteps of the world's superpower, it chooses to defy the decisions of international institutions.
Under the Indus Waters Treaty Pakistan has an unrestricted right to use the waters of the three western rivers, namely, Indus, Chenab and Jehlum, and India is disallowed to build dams with the purpose of storing water. Baglihar has the capacity to store 321,000 acre feet of water, of which 30,400 acre feet is to be live storage, that is meant to supplement the discharge during low flow periods.
This will enable India to steal Pakistan's share of water when it is needed most. Which is particularly worrisome for this country in view of the nature of relations between the two countries and also the fact that in not too-distant-a-future water is slated to become even scarcer and a source of interstate conflicts the world over.
Hence, if the Baglihar issue is not resolved to Pakistan's satisfaction it will surely cast a dark shadow on the on-going composite dialogue process between Pakistan and India. In other words, what is at stake here is not just a legitimate claim over water but also peace between the two nuclear-capable neighbours.
One can only hope the World Bank will be mindful of all these implications of the issue, and do all it must do to ensure implementation of the neutral expert's decision.
Comments
Comments are closed.