Russia aims to harvest at least 75 million tonnes of grain in 2005, a senior agriculture official said on Wednesday although analysts said actual output might differ significantly from this early forecast. "Currently, everything necessary is being done to guarantee a grain harvest of 75 million tonnes minimum," said Anatoly Mikhalyov, the head of the Federal Agriculture Agency, which is part of the Agriculture Ministry. Russia's agricultural sector is affected by unpredictable weather, which has sent the country's crops in boom and bust cycles.
Last year it harvested 78 million tonnes, after just 67.2 million tonnes in 2003, but in a good year output rivals the biggest EU producers such as France, which harvested 37.6 million tonnes of soft wheat in 2004.
"It is too early to judge about real crop volumes now. A more precise forecast may be made in March, when the situation with winter crops becomes clearer," Andrei Sizov of SovEcon agricultural analysts said.
Mikhalyov said the condition of winter grains, which normally account for a substantial part of the country's grain output, is currently seen as good to satisfactory.
The ministry estimates the total winter crops sowing area for the 2005 harvest, including winter grains, rapeseed and crops for animal feeding, at 14.5 million hectares.
SovEcon estimates winter grains area sown for this year's harvest at 13.5 million hectares, up from 13.33 million hectares in the previous season.
However the winter grains area may decline depending on the winter kill losses. Last year grains were lost only on 7.5 percent of the total winter grain area, compared with nearly 20 percent in the previous season.
Mikhalyov said that the total area to be sown with grains in the 2004/05 agricultural year, including both winter and spring grains, is expected to rise by 2.5 million hectares from 44.2 million hectares in 2003/04. Sizov questioned this forecast.
"Spring grain area is unlikely to rise substantially, as high demand for sunseeds from domestic oil crushers will force producers to sow more land with sunseeds," he said.
"And one also should not forget about a shortage of agriculture machinery," Sizov added.
Mikhalyov said grain producers had the necessary amount of seeds for the spring sowing campaign, but only 65 percent of tractors and combine harvesters necessary to finish it in time.
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