For New Delhi housewife Kavita Pant, holidays used to mean bundling her husband, two children and herself into a train for a jolting ride to her in-laws' home in dusty Madhya Pradesh state. But with India allowing carriers to fly more routes, resulting in cheaper fares, and growing overall affluence, Pant is heading for foreign shores. "This year we're going to London and will take the children to see Shakespeare country. We've read so much about England, now we'll see it in person," Pant, whose husband is a chartered accountant, said.
Hundreds of thousands of Indians who normally would have vacationed in India are expected to fly abroad this year, with analysts predicting outbound travel could double from the current 15 million within a few years as air fares drop and more people move into the middle class bracket.
Kapil Kaul, head of the India office of Sydney-based Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation, forecast 15 to 20 percent growth in India's outbound passengers over the next five years. "India is adding to the vast reservoir of middle class with its over seven percent economic growth," he said.
"It will be primarily because of GDP growth and higher income propensities. They all want to fly," he added. "The number of people flying overseas will double to 30 to 35 million by 2010, from 15 million annually."
Lower air fares are also having a big impact. Open any newspaper and there are a plethora of advertisements for travel to Europe and the United States with prices 10 to 15 percent below last year's rates.
A return air ticket from Delhi to London has already dropped 20 to 25 percent to below 20,000 rupees (450 dollars) - nearly the same as flying from Delhi to the southern Indian city of Madras - thanks to a doubling of weekly flights to London to 40 from 19.
Other destinations which also have become cheaper are Dubai, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand as India has negotiated new bilateral landing rights.
"With liberalisation and increased capacity, demand is likely to rise sharply," said Alok Sawhney, British Airways country manager, one of the global carriers hungrily eyeing business from India's one-billion-plus population.
After years of allowing only Indian state carriers to fly lucrative longhaul routes, the government bowed in January to burgeoning passenger demand and gave the green light to private Indian carriers to fly overseas.
They also are extending more landing rights to international carriers and increasing the number of flights by state-run flag-carrier Air India.
"If only 30 per cent of Indians decide to travel by air, it will be more than the population of the US and Western Europe," India's Aviation Minister Praful Patel said.
India's biggest private airline Jet Airways and rival Sahara Airlines are set to fly not only to London but to Singapore and Malaysia in the near future.
Private airlines are likely to add US destinations once details of an "Open Skies" agreement signed with the United States in January are hammered out.
While an estimated 250 to 300 million Indians still live on less than a dollar a day, the middle class is becoming increasingly affluent with India's economy growing at around seven percent. These higher incomes mean more people will holiday abroad, industry officials say. India has also been seeking to win landing rights around the globe for Indian carriers and extend similar rights to international carriers.
"We'll be liberalising our bilaterals like we've done with the United States and the UK ... We will be holding talks with France, Germany, Hong Kong and China soon," said the aviation minister.
"All this will lead to lots of excitement and the pie will grow. Destinations are becoming more affordable. It's fuelling the urge to travel," said Singapore Airlines northern India manager Manjit Grewal.
Simultaneously, the number of incoming tourists are expected to more than double to seven to eight million by 2010 from the 3.36 million in 2004 and India has announced a major push to upgrade its shabby airports.
Proposals to grant visitors from certain countries - yet to be decided - visas on arrival instead of making people apply in person or by mail at Indian embassies should also boost tourism to India, officials say.
Still travel consultant Inder Sharma, who used to own India's biggest travel agency, SITA, said India has a long way to go before catching up with other Asian nations such as Singapore and Malaysia as a tourist destination.
Malaysia drew 15.7 million tourists in 2004, Singapore attracted 8.3 million while giant neighbour China received 109.4 million tourists.
"Our numbers will grow but our world market share will continue to be very small," Sharma said. "It might take anything from 10 to 15 years to grow our four-tenths of a percent of world tourism to reach even one percent.
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