Experts feared Saturday that growing French negativism may doom the proposed constitution for the European Union, but they also blamed the ineptness of politicians in Brussels and Paris for a crisis that may seriously set back the EU. They were commenting on the results of a poll published in France Friday that indicated that 51 percent of French voters may reject the constitution in a referendum on May 29. Forty-nine percent said they backed the text.
"If France votes no, the constitution is dead and this poll is not good," said Daniel Keohane of the Centre for European Reform in London. "The momentum is on the no side. It's going to be difficult to regain and it's worrying."
The constitution, which was adopted by EU heads of state and government in June, was intended to streamline the EU's administration to accommodate its expanding membership, define a charter of fundamental rights for citizens and create a president and foreign minister for Europe, among other things.
The constitution would replace the existing Rome and Maastricht treaties on which the EU is founded.
Since it is itself a treaty, it cannot come into force until it has been ratified in every member country, either through a popular referendum as in France, or a popular vote. Spain became the first country to approve the constitution by referendum last month.
Experts concurred that a negative vote by France, one of the six original founders of the European integration project in 1957, would be a disastrous setback for the EU.
"If you want to be positive, you could say that this poll is going to be an electro-shock." said Marielle de Sarnez, a member of the European Parliament and a fervent supporter of the constitution. "But the risk is large: if France, a founding country, says no to the constitution, it will be as if it were saying no to Europe."
She said the consequences could be as serious as France's rejection in 1954 of a proposed European defence community, which set defence co-operation back by quarter of a century. Then in 1992 French voters only narrowly approved the Maastricht treaty.
"I don't want to be a pessimist, but I think we've started very badly," said Yves Meny, president of the European University Institute in Florence. "We are on a very slippery slope that will be extraordinarily difficult to climb again."
Meny said he was not sure the French would be susceptible to the argument that by voting no, they would be dooming the EU to a profound crisis.
Analysts were scathing in their criticism of both EU and French politicians for stoking the crisis.
The former, for example, chose this moment to plug an unpopular directive, devised by former commissioner Frits Bolkestein, that aims to open up to competition in national public service sectors such as health and education. French public workers went on strike earlier this month against what they see as a threat to the country's vaunted public service tradition.
Yet European Commission President Jose Durao Barroso Monday criticised France and other countries that are resisting the directive because of fears it will lead to "social dumping" as a result of competition from low-wage countries.
Meny accused the commission of "waving a red flag" by supporting what is known as the country of origin principle, which means that a company can trade anywhere in the EU provided only that it obey the rules and regulations of its own country.
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