The Federal Reserve's stance on interest-rate rises and the price of crude are set to call the shots in the market this week. While higher oil prices could pull industrial and transportation stocks lower, interest-rate worries could weigh on financial and homebuilders' shares, strategists said. "What the Fed says will be on the minds of investors this week, as will be the cost of oil," said Alex Motola, portfolio manager at Thornburg Investment Management.
In a shortened four-day week, the markets will be closed on Friday for the Good Friday holiday.
Carmakers' stocks could continue their slide after General Motors Corp warned Wall Street last Wednesday that it expects a first-quarter loss.
Last week, crude oil futures vaulted to a record intraday high of $57.60 a barrel on Thursday. April crude rose 32 cents on Friday to settle at $56.72 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
High oil prices hurt the market as a whole by crimping corporate profits and consumer spending.
FedEx Corp offered evidence of the negative effect of higher oil prices on profits. The world's largest air-express carrier on Thursday gave a current-quarter forecast toward the low end of analysts' estimates, citing rising fuel costs as a concern.
On Friday, stocks finished a volatile session almost unchanged. The day was marked by the quarterly expiration of March futures and options on stocks and stock indexes an event known as quadruple witching plus the rebalancing of some stocks in the S&P indexes.
For the week, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 1.34 percent, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index slipped 0.87 percent and the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 1.66 percent.
The US Producer Price Index, which gives a reading of inflation at a wholesale level, will be closely watched when it's released on Tuesday morning several hours before the Fed's announcement on interest rates.
The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to raise its benchmark fed funds rate target by another quarter percentage point to 2.75 percent. It also could signal the pace of future rate increases. This would be the Fed's seventh rate increase in this credit-tightening cycle, which began last June.
Rising rates hurt banks, such as Citigroup Inc and Bank of America Corp, as they make it trickier for them to earn money on lending. Homebuilders also take a hit amid climbing rates as they translate into higher mortgage rates, which could crimp the housing boom.
The US Consumer Price Index, a gauge of inflation at the retail price level, will get Wall Street's attention on Wednesday.
On the earnings front, homebuilder KB Home's first-quarter results will be in focus on Monday.
Oracle Corp will report its quarterly results on Tuesday. Last week, Oracle raised its offer for Retek Inc 25 percent on Thursday, topping German software maker SAP AG's sweetened bid for the US retail automation software company.
Investors could be drawn toward the software sector amid merger activity and strong earnings from software makers such as Adobe Systems Inc, which gave a better-than-expected outlook on Thursday.
However, investors may steer clear of automakers. General Motors, the world's largest automaker, on Wednesday warned its 2005 earnings will be as much as 80 percent below its previous forecast due to slumping North American auto sales, sending its shares down 14 percent to a 12-1/2-year low.
The news also dragged on shares of GM rivals Ford Motor Co and DaimlerChrysler AG.
"General Motors' comments on its business puts a spotlight on similar mature carmakers," said Robert Lutts, chief investment officer of Cabot Management Inc "Investors are probably going to be asking themselves, 'Do I own a company like GM? Are they innovating? Are they a low-cost carrier?' Companies like Ford and GM are in trouble. They are not healthy at all."
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