Zimbabwe's veteran leader Robert Mugabe has been likened by critics to a man riding a lion - forced by pride to pose as a hero while facing the constant threat of being mauled. Political analysts say Mugabe has little chance of steering Zimbabwe out of its political and economic crisis because he fears losing power which undermines his ability to act. Mugabe, an African liberation hero now pilloried as a dictator by Western countries, will see his balance tested again when Zimbabwe holds parliamentary elections on March 31.
The opposition says the polls will be neither free nor fair, but instead will give the 81-year-old leader a chance to engineer another win for his ruling ZANU-PF party which it says rigged victories in both 2000 and 2002.
But victory at the polls will hardly solve Mugabe's problems.
He cannot win back crucial Western aid for Zimbabwe's ravaged economy without reversing some of his controversial policies, including tight controls on the media and security laws hobbling the opposition, analysts say.
The embattled Zimbabwean leader is unlikely do this because it would expose his weaknesses, leaving him vulnerable to leadership challenges from both within ZANU-PF and from outside forces, the analysts say.
"For Mugabe, I don't think he sees any way of doing that without losing control, and without endangering his own political position," said Eldred Masunungure, a political science lecturer at Harare's University of Zimbabwe.
"For some powerful Western countries, the Zimbabwe question has become a matter of prestige and I don't think they will accept any reforms which will leave Mugabe posturing as the final winner in this stand-off," he said.
Lovemore Madhuku, chairman of the Zimbabwe political pressure group the National Constitutional Assembly, believes Mugabe sees a free press as a threat because it would open up a public debate over his management of the economy, his handling of ethnic issues and his overall leadership skills.
"In the last five years, Mugabe has stifled debate on whether he is an asset or liability to this country ... and without the restrictions he has imposed that debate will become a very serious issue," he said.
Mugabe responded with characteristic anger to a spirited drive by some of his top political lieutenants, including former information minister Jonathan Moyo, to oppose his decision late last year to elevate Joyce Mujuru to the vice-presidency ahead of parliamentary speaker Emmerson Mnangagwa.
For years, Mnangagwa had been touted as Mugabe's likely successor and political analysts say the president - expected to retire at the end of his current term in 2008 - was no longer comfortable with him and doesn't want him in a post that puts him line for the top job.
Analysts say Mugabe does not want a strong successor because he fears possible prosecution or persecution on charges of abuse of office, and prefers a candidate from his Mashonaland home region whom he can manipulate after retirement.
Mugabe's political balancing act takes place against the backdrop of a severe economic crisis that has turned a country that was once one of southern Africa's success stories into a basket case.
Zimbabwe has one of the highest rates of inflation in the world, unemployment of 70 percent, and acute shortages of food, fuel and foreign currency - all woes that critics blame on Mugabe's economic mismanagement.
Many Western donors have frozen economic aid to Zimbabwe because of Mugabe's policies, a step the government says is unfair and invited by the opposition.
The European Union has extended a series of sanctions against Mugabe's government, including a visa ban on Mugabe and his top associates, while the United States has lumped Zimbabwe with countries such as Iran and North Korea as "outposts of tyranny."
Many wonder how long the country can battle on in isolation.
A columnist in Harare's state-controlled Herald newspaper admitted recently that Zimbabwe would want to see sanctions lifted and return to the international fold.
"Countries are run on the basis of international finance, underpinned by the global banking industry," Nathaniel Manheru said.
Mugabe, in power since independence from Britain in 1980, accuses Zimbabwe's former colonial ruler of leading a Western campaign to oust him over his government's seizure of white-owned farms for redistribution to landless blacks.
Thus far, there is little sign he is ready to back down.
Zimbabwe's anti-Western rhetoric has increased as the polls approach, with Mugabe and other top officials accusing the main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) of acting as a proxy for the government's enemies.
Critics say electoral reforms adopted under pressure from regional leaders still don't meet international demands for a fair vote - charges the government dismisses as propaganda.
And although overt pre-election campaign violence against the opposition has fallen this year compared to the last significant elections in 2000 and in 2002, analysts say Zimbabwe's political climate remains oppressive and Mugabe's fears are to blame.
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