Oil prices tracked higher on Wednesday, holding above $54 as Opec's deferral of any supply increase until later this year countered concerns of swelling US crude inventories. US light crude rose 20 cents to $54.43 a barrel, more than $3 below an all-time peak of $57.60 on March 17. They are almost $13 above the average price for 2004 at $41.47. Prices have risen 25 percent this year but have fallen from the peaks on increasing Opec supplies and a strengthening dollar, which has enticed some speculative players to liquidate oil profits to catch the rising trend.
"If we get yet another hefty rise in crude stocks you would have to start thinking all those hedge funds would be getting a bit nervous with their positions at the end of the quarter," said David Thurtell, a Sydney-based commodities strategist with Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
US government data due out at 1530 GMT on Wednesday is expected to show domestic crude inventories growing for the seventh-straight week to the highest level since the middle of July 2002.
A Reuters survey of 13 analysts forecast US crude stocks to rise by 2.2 million barrels in the week to March 25, bringing total commercial inventories to more than 311 million barrels.
But robust demand and lower domestic production were expected to reduce gasoline stocks by 1.3 million barrels, marking the fourth decline in a row ahead of summer, when consumption peaks.
"The market is still a bit nervous from last week's outage so a sharper-than-expected fall in gasoline stocks could exacerbate things," Thurtell said.
Concerns over gasoline supplies grew last week after a fatal explosion at BP Plc's Texas City refinery, the third largest in the United States, knocked out a gasoline-upgrading unit.
There also were problems at a handful of gasoline-producing units at US refineries.
Oil's 5 percent slide from the all-time peak to below $55 a barrel has led the Opec producers' cartel to defer any further increase in supplies for the time being.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries raised its output ceiling by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) two weeks ago and left open the option of a second similarly sized increase if prices failed to ease below $55.
Opec's smallest producer, Qatar, said on Wednesday there was little likelihood the cartel would boost production ahead of its June meeting now that prices had fallen.
"I think the (OPEC) president does not feel there's a need to take action," Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah al-Attiyah said while on a visit to South Korea. "I don't think he'll call us."
Opec President Sheikh Ahmad al-Fahd al-Sabah said on Tuesday there was no need for any immediate increase to output, but supply would have to rise by more than 1 million bpd for the third quarter.
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