Following is a selection of comments from analysts on important technical developments in the foreign exchange market:
EURO/DOLLAR: "The break of $1.2949/41 (congestion), $1.2932 (.618 of $1.2853-$1.3059) and now $1.2906 (reaction low) puts $1.2889 (reaction low) in the cross hairs. The way this decline is accelerating, it looks like there's been a lot of sell-stop loss orders below each support-a sign that there were a lot of bulls before and right after the employment number. So a break of $1.2889 should be a matter of time, allowing further wave 5 acceleration through the $1.2853 wave 3 bottom."
DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC: "A couple of spike lows in the 1.1920/13 francs (congestion) to 1.1861 francs (.382 of 1.1499-1.2084) solid support zone create a landscape for a return the short-term bull trend from 1.1480. So, the wave 4 correction from 1.2084 is holding well above the 1.1741 (reaction low) to 1.1722 (.618 of 1.1499-1.2084) risk area. In fact, odds favour a wave 4 low labelled at 1.1878. From there, a move above 1.2005 (.618 of 1.2084-1.1878 and reaction high) would fully confirm a wave 5 rally underway and on track for an eventual rise above the 1.2084 wave 3 high. Micro-term support is in the 1.1911 (.618 since 1.1878) area."
EURO/DOLLAR: "Euro bulls attempted a pre-emptive strike on the dollar defences today in a bid to recapture the $1.3000 level. Greenback longs successfully pushed back the single currency and the trench warfare resumed as if nothing happened. As the euro/dollar continues to drift sideways euro longs will rely on minor support at $1.2934, created by the 5-day simple moving average (SMA). Single currency defences remain intact at $1.2890, an intermediate support formed by the 78.6 Fibonacci of the $1.2730-$1.3482 euro rally. Major support at $1.2850, formed by the February 10-14 consolidation range low, remains an obstacle before the dollar bulls can target the $1.2730 level, a 2005 low in a push toward the $1.2490, a 61.8 fib of the $1.1760-$1.3667 euro rally."
STERLING/DOLLAR: "Cable longs managed to recapture some of the ground it lost to the dollar, but failed to break above the minor resistance at $1.8919, a 50 Fib of the February-March cable rally. Dollar longs pulled back their defences and established an intermediate support at $1.8950, March 21-22 consolidation low, that protects a major support at $1.9008, a 20-day SMA, which currently rests below the 38.2 Fib of the $1.8505-$1.9328 sterling rally. Cable longs managed to turn previous dollar defences to their cause with minor support seen at $1.8819, a 61.8 Fib of the February-March pound rally, followed by an intermediate support at $1.8804, a 10-day SMA. A major support at $1.8753, a 5 day-SMA, rounds up sterling's defences."
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