TAP gas pipeline

Pakistan's need for energy to fuel its present growth rate of around six percent and further boost it to eight percent according to the government's ambitions, requires import of energy, our own sources being inadequate. Gas offers the possibility of a relatively inexpensive energy source. According to government estimates, Pakistan's economy would require 200-500 million cubic feet per day by 2010, 1.4 billion cubic feet per day over the next five years, and up to 2.5 billion cubic feet per day come 2025.
Our domestic gas reserves, despite new discoveries, point to a depleting source over time. It is, therefore, a matter for some satisfaction that the three-country steering committee for the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (TAP) gas pipeline in its eighth meeting in Islamabad the other day has showed signs of progress in the implementation of this delayed project.
The $3.3 billion, 1,700 kms long pipeline from the Daulatabad gas field in Turkmenistan will traverse Afghanistan and end in Pakistan. Although work on the project was supposed to begin in August 2005, delays in determining and certifying the reserves at the Daulatabad field have pushed the start date to the end of the year.
An American consultancy firm has now delivered an interim report to the effect that these reserves are sufficient to supply three billion cubic feet per day for the next 30 years. The final report and certification to this effect will be delivered in detail within one month, according to the Turkmenistan government. Further good news is that the techno-economic feasibility report from the Asian Development Bank has given the project a clean chit.
All that is needed now is to attract a consortium of private investors to kick start the project. While the final route of the gas pipeline will be decided by the investors, it is reasonable to assume that it will enter northern Afghanistan from Daulatabad, exit Afghanistan at Qandahar, and then be taken through Loralai to Multan. There is even a proposal to extend a southern branch of the pipeline to Gwadar, which would only make sense if supplies were found surplus to allow re-export from the new port.
As far as the revenue to be generated from the pipeline, the price Pakistan will pay for Turkmen gas, and transit fees for Afghanistan are concerned, these are all matters to be settled, possibly at the next meeting of the steering committee.
Although discussions on the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline appear stalled, not the least because of American reservations concerning supplies from Iran, Petroleum Minister Amanullah Jadoon, while answering a question at a joint press conference after the steering committee meeting said that if India was desirous of the TAP pipeline being extended to its territory, Pakistan would have no objections. While bringing more buyer countries on board obviously is beneficial in terms of cost-benefit and tying neighbouring countries into a mutually advantageous economic relationship, it is not yet clear how New Delhi would respond to such offers to meet its own pressing needs for energy.
A by-product of either the TAP or Iran-Pakistan pipeline being extended to India would be that since in both cases the pipelines would traverse Afghanistan's territory, this would create a vested interest in both Islamabad and New Delhi to support peace, stability and security in Afghanistan, without the traditional jockeying for influence and turf with Kabul.
One aspect that has caused concern about the TAP pipeline and the proposed Iran-Pakistan pipeline is the question of security along its route through Afghanistan. The Afghan government has expressed its confidence that it will be able to provide security to any pipeline passing through its territory with the help of its own army and police and the international coalition forces currently present there, and with its enhanced security forces once these foreign forces leave.
We in Pakistan should also reflect on the fact that since these pipelines would pass through the troubled province of Balochistan, there is a dire need to broaden the dialogue currently in progress between the government and Nawab Akbar Bugti on the situation in the Bugti area, to other prominent nationalist leaders in the province in order to defuse the simmering insurgency that has Balochistan in its grip. Just as the argument goes that India's participation in pipeline projects traversing Afghanistan would create a mutual vested interest in that country and Pakistan to keep the gas flowing, the same logic would seem to apply to securing the pipelines passing through Balochistan by bringing the nationalists on board and giving them a stake in uninterrupted gas supplies.
Pakistan has to look to the future and examine soberly its energy needs for a growing economy.
It is in our interest not to leave any stone unturned in the search for sources of energy imports, whatever be Washington's reservations about one source, ie Iran. Four options are currently on the table for gas imports: the TAP, Iran-Pakistan-India, Qatar-Pakistan pipelines, and/or liquefied petroleum gas from Qatar. Pakistan cannot afford to ignore any of these possible sources. It is heartening that the TAP project seems finally to be moving towards implementation. Meanwhile, the other options should also be pursued with vigour and without let-up.