Statistics Canada will probably show farmers had a glut of grain socked away in their bins on March 31 because of depressed offers for poor quality crops, according to traders surveyed ahead of a report slated for Friday. Traders and analysts said they expect grain stocks to be significantly larger than on March 31, 2004, mainly because of disappointing exports and massive supplies of low-grade grains due to early frosts and a prolonged harvest last year. "The power of the farmer to hang on is truly remarkable," a veteran Winnipeg grain trader said, noting producers have stubbornly refused to accept depressed prices for low-quality stocks.
"He just isn't getting what he wanted and he's kept it at home," the trader said. Traders believe the report will peg total canola stocks between 3.7 million and 4.1 million tonnes, with an average estimate of 3.9 million tonnes, up more than 50 percent from last year.
That could leave Canada with 1.2 million to 1.8 million tonnes of canola at the end of the 2004/2005 (August/July) marketing year, traders said.
Many analysts believe farmers produced more than Statscan's official total of 7.728 million tonnes of canola in 2004, and were watching for signals that the federal agency will revise that production number in future reports.
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