An increase in Russia's 2004 grain output and a continued decline in domestic consumption may result in an increase in 2004/05 (July-June) ending stocks to 11.6 million tonnes from 7 million tonnes last season. The increase is likely to support Russia's grain exports, mostly wheat, in the summer before new harvest grain appears on the market. Russia's grain output in 2004 was 78.1 million tonnes, nearly 11 million tonnes up from the previous year.
Russia's grain imports in the current season are expected to be 2.5 million tonnes, unchanged from last season. SovEcon forecasts Russia's domestic consumption in 2004/05 to be 67.7 million tonnes, 1.3 million tonnes below last season (Table 1).
This reflects essentially a continued decline in cattle and pig numbers. By May 1, cattle numbers had dropped to 24.1 million heads, or by 7.4 percent year-on-year.
Pork numbers had dwindled to 14.3 million heads, or by 10.7 percent year-on-year. In addition, an expected decline in the spring grain area may reduce seed requirements.
Grain exports in 2004/05 are forecast at about 8.3 million tonnes, compared with 7.3 million in 2003/04. Of this, wheat exports are estimated at 7.2 million tonnes.
As a result, Russia's aggregate grain consumption in 2004/05 is seen at 76 million tonnes, close to last season's 76.3 million tonnes. Russia's ending grain stocks in 2004/05 of 11.6 million tonnes are expected to cover some 17 percent of domestic consumption.
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