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US Treasury debt prices were mostly steady on Thursday after weekly jobless claims came in largely as expected. The market was subdued as traders squared positions and looked ahead to Friday's non-farm payrolls report, easily the single most influential economic indicator in US financial markets.
"Jobless claims: The non-event of the day," said Don Kowalchik, a debt strategist with at A.G Edwards & Sons in St. Louis, Missouri. "Everybody is on the sideline waiting for tomorrow."
Weekly first-time jobless claims came in at 312,000 in the week ended July 30, down 1,000 from the prior week's upwardly revised result of 313,000. Wall Street economists had expected claims to move up to 315,000 from the original reading of 310,000 reported for the prior week.
The four-week moving average, which smooths out volatility, also showed a dip, falling to 316,750. It suggested the job market may be firming and that Friday's monthly report may end up on the strong side.
"The only thing this gives us is a trend being in place for a potentially strong number tomorrow," Kowalchik added. "That plus we've had fairly strong economic numbers lately. It's starting to look like if there's a surprise tomorrow, it'll probably be on the upside."
In a Reuters survey conducted last week, economists' median forecast was that the economy probably generated 183,000 new jobs in July.
The 10-year note was steady to yield 4.30 percent, as were the two-year note, which was yielding 4.02 percent and the five-year note at a yield of 4.13 percent. The 30-year bond was down 3/32 to yield 4.51 percent.
Separately, investors in the second leg of a derivatives auction bet on Thursday that July payrolls data would come in at 188,000 jobs, up from 185,000 new jobs in Wednesday's initial auction. Two more payroll-linked auctions are scheduled: One later on Thursday, and a final one on Friday just ahead of the data.
These types of economic derivatives, offered by Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and interdealer broker ICAP, have had a good track record at revealing how market participants are positioned ahead of important economic indicators relative to economists' consensus forecasts.

Copyright Reuters, 2005

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