The Chicago Board of Trade soyabean market closed mostly higher on Monday but backed off its highs on updated wetter forecasts for the upper US Midwest crop region later this week, traders said. "Forecasts calling for rains south of Interstate 80 was the stopper," said one CBOT trader.
August soya closed 2 cents higher at $6.60-1/2 per bushel and new-crop November settled 1-3/4 cents up at $6.70-3/4 after climbing 11 cents to a session high of $6.80 near the open.
The market was due for a bounce after the November contract slipped below its 100-day moving average of $6.59-3/4 per bushel on Friday. Open interest fell by roughly 10,700 contracts on Friday.
"On Friday's break set the tone of the market. Everyone is waiting for the crop condition and on Friday's (USDA) crop reports to give some direction.
The market felt tired at $7 and we'll probably keep in a choppy range until on Friday," said one cash-connected trader.
After the close, USDA said in its weekly crop progress report that US soya ratings dropped 3 percentage points 51 percent of the crop in the good to excellent categories.
Traders expected conditions to fall by 1 to 3 points after the hot, dry spell last week. The government will release its August 2005 US soya crop estimates on Friday.
Trade estimates for the US soyabean crop are at roughly 2.8 billion bushels, down from USA's July estimate of 2.890 billion. Forecasts for mostly dry and warm weather this week in the eastern US Midwest crop region gave support.
That area of the country was hardest hit by a lack of rain. But moisture during August, the key pod-setting and pod-filling time period, can increase yield potential.
Weekend export business featured Taiwan tendering on Tuesday for 40,000 to 60,000 tonnes of South American soyabeans or US. Cheaper ocean freight and firmer South American soya values made US offers for October/November/December delivery competitive with South America, floor traders said.
Traders in Tokyo said importers in Japan would be busy this week seeking corn and soya cargoes ahead of the summer holiday period. They said Taiwan importers would be buying after running down high domestic stocks.
US grain export inspections were market-neutral as they remain low but within trade expectations. USDA reported on Monday that 4.767 million bushels of soyabeans were inspected for export last week.
That was within trade estimates for 2.0 million to 5.0 million bushels. There were no deliveries on the August contract on Monday. Registrations with the CBOT declined to 1,499 lots from the previous 1,532. Midwest cash basis bids for soyabeans on Monday were mixed firm at river terminals and steady to weak at interior locations, dealers said.
The soya-product markets followed the choppy moves in soyabeans, moving off their highs as soyabeans dipped. August soyameal closed 80 cents higher at $211.70 per ton, with the back months up 80 cents to down $3.50.
August soyaoil was 0.18 cent weaker at 23.44 cents per lb., with the deferred down 0.20 to up 0.02 cent. Malaysian palm oil futures closed weak overnight.
Palm ended off its lows as buyers returned to the market after a rebound of rival US soyaoil, traders in Kuala Lumpur said. There were no soyameal deliveries on the August contract and no soyameal registered with the CBOT. In soyaoil, there were 247 lots posted against the August contract. A LBS customer issued all of the soyaoil and there was scattered stopping.
Soyaoil registrations with the CBOT unchanged at 2,934 lots. On Friday's CFTC commitments report showed that large speculators increased their large net long position in CBOT soyabean futures in the week ended August 2. In soyaoil and soyameal funds trimmed their net longs.
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