Australian grain: rains promise strong wheat crop

Australia's wheat crop is progressing well and will probably get the rainfall needed for a harvest around the upper levels of the forecast range, industry experts said on Friday.
The Australian grain belt, which stretches around the southern coastal half of the country like a giant horseshoe, faces the prospect of average rain through to the December harvest, the Bureau of Meteorology said.
"The crop's going well. It's in good condition," said Peter McBride, spokesman for national wheat exporter AWB Ltd AWB is maintaining its forecast for a harvest of 21 million to 23 million tonnes.
Private group Australian Wheat Forecasters this week forecast a crop of 24.13 million tonnes. At this level the crop would be close to the record 25.70 million tonnes in 2003/04 and ahead of last year's 20.61 million tonnes.
A forecast of 19.70 million tonnes by government unit, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, is seen as conservative by most in the trade.
Spring rain over the next couple of months would be important to ensure the crop, but all the indications were that rainfall would be normal in growing regions, AWB's McBride said.
"We're confident that we should get a crop within our forecast range based on normal conditions," he said.
The Bureau of Meteorology said in its rainfall outlook statement this week that the chance of at least median rainfall occurring in the December quarter was close to 50 percent across most of the country.
A weather bureau official said many growing areas were likely to receive enough rain for reasonable crops.
In New South Wales, which has had the worst of a drought throughout eastern parts of the country, farmers were more reliant than ever on good spring rain, state Primary Industries Minister Ian Macdonald said.
This followed the warmest winter on record in the state, with August temperatures 1 to 2 degrees Celsius above normal.
The area of the state officially in drought has dropped to 77 percent from 87 percent a month ago.
While the main winter grains of wheat and barley face good crop prospects, production of the planted oilseed canola is forecast to remain restricted by drought.
The Australian Oilseeds Federation's latest forecast for the 2005/06 canola crop is unchanged from its last forecast of 1.33 million tonnes, down from last year's output of 1.53 million tonnes.