German exports will probably increase by 5.4 percent this year, before expansion slows to around 5 percent in 2006, according to an annual survey by the BDI industry federation published on Tuesday.
BDI also predicted that Germany's economy would grow by no more than one percent this year and 1.5 percent next year. Germany, the world's No 1 exporter last year, has relied on foreign demand for its goods to power economic growth and compensate for stagnant domestic demand. Exports advanced 10 percent in 2004 to more than 700 billion euros ($835 billion).
In the first half of this year, Germany posted a record trade surplus of just under 85 billion euros, beating the previous record from the second half of 2004, according to Federal Statistics Office data.
However, the BDI warned at the end of August that record oil prices were endangering Germany's growth and investment outlook and posing risks to exports as energy costs surge.
BDI managing director Ludolf von Wartenberg said in the prepared text of a speech that high oil prices could smother Germany's already weak economy.
"With our modest economic growth rate, a slowdown would mean stopping," he said.
Von Wartenberg said Germany's gross domestic product (GDP) would rise by no more than one percent this year and 1.5 percent next year. Higher estimates were unrealistic, he added.
"We'll be happy this year if we get one percent," he said.
The BDI export forecast was more pessimistic than one made last week by the country's chambers of commerce and industry (DIHK). DIHK forecast exports growing 7 percent this year, slowing to 6.3 percent in 2006. BDI says its autumn export survey covered about 80 percent of Germany's export industry.
Germany's most important export market in the first half of 2005 remained the European Union, which bought around two thirds of goods shipped abroad. The US bought 8.7 percent.
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