China 2005 growth put at 9.4 percent

The Chinese economy is forecast to continue booming this year with 9.4 percent growth before a slide in exports cools things down more significantly in 2006, state media reported Friday.
In the latest report by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year was expected to fall only marginally from last year's 9.5 percent.
Next year, however, slowing exports would take this down further to 8.9 percent, said the report, published in the official China Securities Journal.
Although CASS, one of China's key academic thinktanks, their forecast is just one of many put out by the multitude of research groups associated with various government departments.
According to forecasts made by central bank researchers last month China's booming economy is expected to grow 9.2 percent this year and 8.7 percent in the first half next year.
Also last month, the International Monetary Fund said China was seen expanding by nine percent in next year and 8.2 percent in 2006.
"Much depends on the strength of the pickup in the IT sector as well as developments in the United States and, increasingly, China," the IMF said in its twice-yearly World Economic Outlook report.
The Academy's forecast is one of many which sees little risk of deflation despite concerns expressed by some economists over a sharp slowing in inflation from last year's rate of 3.9 percent.
The report forecast a Consumer Price Index rise of 1.9 percent for 2005, picking up slightly to 2.1 percent next year.
It said overall growth this year will continue to be supported by exports, which are forecast to grow 25.7 percent compared with 16.1 percent for imports, giving a trade surplus of 94 billion dollars - almost triple 2004's surplus of 32 billion dollars.
The trade surplus in the nine months to September stood at 68.3 billion dollars, according to official figures.
The CASS then expects the surplus to slip in 2006 to 82 billion dollars as appreciation of the yuan undercuts export growth.
"We forecast that 2006's export growth and trade surplus will decline due to the appreciation of the yuan."
It put the 2006 export growth rate at 12.6 percent, a sharp slowdown, while import growth will pick up only slightly to 16.2 percent.
Fixed asset investment, one of the main drivers of China's economic performance, was likely to remain robust, with some sectors, such as coal and electricity, at risk of overheating, the CASS said.